Given the recent release of hacked documents from Russia indicating that Russia is providing China with materiel and training to prepare for an airborne assault on Taiwan which is tentatively scheduled for 2027, this is a case of “better late than never”.
China will never do that - too many casualties. The CCP is risk-adverse and cannot withstand an enraged public - if they thought the public's response to the CCP's draconian mandates was challenging - this would be tantamount to revolt.
There is no safety net to speak of in China - each son lost in combat means one family will lose their income and become impoverished and even starve to death. Multiplied by thousands a week and the CCP will be destroyed.
AI claim:
A full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan would result in massive casualties for China, with estimates suggesting tens of thousands of military personnel could be killed or lost. According to a 2023 war game simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China would suffer approximately 7,000 ground casualties, with roughly a third assumed killed, and an additional 15,000 soldiers lost at sea, half of whom would be killed.
The report also estimates China would lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships in the base scenario. Other analyses, including a report from the Henry Jackson Society, warn that a
conflict could result in as many as 500,000 deaths, though this figure includes civilian and regional casualties. Experts argue that even a successful invasion would lead to significant reputational, economic, and political costs for China, potentially outweighing any strategic gains.
China would suffer around 7,000 ground casualties in a war game simulation, with roughly 2,300 assumed killed.
An estimated 15,000 Chinese soldiers would be lost at sea, with half assumed killed.
The CSIS simulation projected China would lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.
A separate report from the Henry Jackson Society estimated up to 500,000 people could die in a conflict, though this includes broader regional and civilian casualties.
Experts note that even a successful invasion would carry severe long-term consequences for China’s global standing and domestic stability.
