Future War Will Be Fought with Sticks and Stones
by Casey Christie
11.20.2025 at 06:00am
Introduction
In an era defined by artificial intelligence, drones, and satellite-guided warfare, it may seem absurd to suggest that the future of war lies in trenches, artillery, and rifles. Yet history has a way of circling back on itself and as nations race to develop increasingly advanced systems of destruction, they also create the means of their own paralysis. The next great war will not be won by the most technologically advanced army, but by the one that can still fight when all technology fails. This is not a romantic return to the past, nor a doomsday prediction, but a logical outcome of warfare’s evolution. Each new military breakthrough has produced a corresponding countermeasure, driving modern battle toward a point of diminishing returns. Directed-energy weapons now drop entire drone swarms from the sky. Cyber-attacks can paralyze command networks. Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) systems threaten to fry electronics across vast regions. Logically, therefore, when all sides possess such capabilities, the advantage shifts not to the most advanced, but to the most adaptable.
The next great war will not be won by the most technologically advanced army, but by the one that can still fight when all technology fails.
The Paradox of Progress
For over a century, the trajectory of war has been defined by progress – faster aircraft, smarter bombs, and more connected command networks. Yet every step toward technological supremacy also increases fragility. Modern militaries are built upon vulnerable foundations: GPS, communications satellites, and data-dependent logistics. An adversary that can disrupt those systems does not need to outgun its opponent; it only needs to unplug it. The U.S., the U.K., China, and Russia are all developing EMP and high-power microwave weapons designed to do exactly that. The U.S. Department of Defense has warned repeatedly that an EMP detonation could disable unshielded electronics across an entire theatre of operations. Russia claims to have a number of non-nuclear EMP devices that have allegedly been tested for battlefield use. China’s military doctrine openly discusses “information dominance” as a means of blinding an adversary before the first shot is fired. If such weapons are ever used at scale, the result would be immediate regression as drones would fall, satellites would go silent, and precision-guided munitions would become scrap metal. Armies would be forced to fight with what still works: small arms, fieldcraft, artillery, and ground tactics that predate the digital age.
Lessons from Ukraine: The Return to Analogue
The war in Ukraine has already previewed this future and ushered in the return of trench warfare – something once thought consigned to the past. Both sides employ extensive electronic warfare, jamming GPS and communications across the front. Ukrainian units now use runners, paper maps, and wired field telephones because radios are routinely intercepted or disabled. Drones now dominate the battlefield – until they don’t, as when weather or jamming grounds them, troops revert to trench warfare that could be mistaken for the Somme. These realities have forced Western military planners and command structures to reconsider their assumptions – the U.S. Army’s recent training updates include renewed emphasis on map reading, camouflage, and radio silence. NATO exercises now simulate environments where GPS and satellite communications are denied. Even the British Army’s Future Soldier Program, heavily invested in digital modernization, includes contingencies for operating “off grid.” The lesson is simple: the most dangerous weapon in modern war may be the switch that turns everything off.
https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/20/future-war-will-be-fought-with-sticks-and-stones/
