Think Democrats are in trouble in 2026? Think again. by Douglas MacKinnon

[mystery-ak]

 Think Democrats are in trouble in 2026? Think again.
by Douglas MacKinnon, opinion contributor   - 11/01/25 12:00 PM

It seems like every time I look at the news these last couple of weeks, there is another piece predicting doom and gloom for the Democratic Party. The latest came from Harry Enten at CNN, who said the data shows the shutdown standoff in Washington is backfiring for the left.

“You might think,” he said, “given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand. But in fact, it hasn’t. If anything, it’s been helped a little bit.”

Enten went on to evaluate the Democrats’ chances in the 2026 midterms. “If you look back to this point when Trump was president the first time around, Democrats were up 11 points. Look at where it is now — Democrats are ahead, but they’re actually only up three points. … This is a concerning number for Democrats because it’s considerably worse than they traditionally do in midterm elections when there’s a Republican president.”

Now, I believe Enten is about as good as it gets when crunching political numbers. But I am not buying it.

I tend to side with those reporting that more voters hold the Republicans accountable for the shutdown, as The Washington Post did this past Thursday. Over the last few decades, the Democrats — with a massive assist from the liberal mainstream media — have done an excellent job selling the idea that the Republican Party sides with “corporations over the people.”

Perception is everything in politics. The echo in the minds of tens of millions of Americans is still this Democratic sales job — despite the concurrent perception today that much of corporate America now leans left, or is completely “woke.” That in turn causes countless people to reflexively blame the Republicans for anything that goes wrong. The reality is, Republicans are still swimming upstream against decades of Democratic propaganda spread far and wide by media allies.

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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5583259-democrats-midterm-election-predictions/

[mystery-ak]

A good read and I agree with him...

Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official. 

[Free Vulcan]

Having run campaigns, my motto still stands - campaign your butt off right up to the time the polls close on election day. Never put your trust in any poll or media punditry, ever.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Trump's  approval is pretty underwater... although higher than Obama's at this time into his second term. But I believe the GOP picked up seats in 2014?

[LMAO]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Trump's  approval is pretty underwater... although higher than Obama's at this time into his second term. But I believe the GOP picked up seats in 2014?

Yes, they did

They took the House in 2010 but came short in the Senate. In 2014, they finally took the Senate also. I remember that popular picture of Chris Matthews with the sad look on his face after the results came in 2014.


Minus the 2012 presidential election, Republicans performed very well during Obama’s tenure.

The mistake that Trump made in 2022 was assuming he can run MAGA Republicans anywhere he wanted. No. A MAGA can’t win in the northeast but a Sununu could.


Just like the Democrats can’t run an AOC or a Jazmine Crockett in a swing district. And I have a hunch that the Democrats will field candidates next year to figure out which Democrats can win and were


Say whatever you will about Nancy Pelosi, she knew exactly what type of Democrats to run and in what type of districts.  Is the strategy she deployed in the 2006 midterms when George Bush’s popularity was waning.


Democrats chances of taking the HOR next year is very good and probably will happen

The Senate? Who knows

[libertybele]

Having run campaigns, my motto still stands - campaign your butt off right up to the time the polls close on election day. Never put your trust in any poll or media punditry, ever.

Agreed.  Never put your trust in any poll.  Polls are worthless.  The GOP winning in 2026 is crucial and they need to broaden their majority.

Meanwhile ... what the heck has the GOP done since Trump has  been in office?  They've written and passed very little  legislation to back Trump's agenda.  You can't sit on your butts and  expect to win.  They should be passing all kinds of  legislation  for Trump to sign. 2026 is fast approaching and now maybe their only chance to do something that's going to make a difference.   

If the DEMS grab the majority in either House in 2026, they can kiss 2028 good-bye.

[libertybele]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Trump's  approval is pretty underwater... although higher than Obama's at this time into his second term. But I believe the GOP picked up seats in 2014?

Another worthless poll  -- who are the asking about Trump's approval  rating??  I give him 4 out of 5 stars.  He's turned this country around in a remarkable short time.  It's our do-nothing Congress that's concerning.  They are the ones that we need to worry about in 2026.

[catfish1957]

Just want to chime in that 368 days until the midterms is a "lifetime" in political terms.

I can guarantee the landscape won't look anything like now, and it could break either way,

[LMAO]

Another worthless poll  -- who are the asking about Trump's approval  rating??  I give him 4 out of 5 stars.  He's turned this country around in a remarkable short time.  It's our do-nothing Congress that's concerning.  They are the ones that we need to worry about in 2026.

This is the same type of denial that a few of us saw during the 2017-2018 cycle

There were a few of us here warning that Trump was threatening  the GOP’s majority that many of us fought hard to regrow after the 2008 debacle. Yet, like now, there were too many here that chose to deny reality


Then the 2018 midterms came. The Democrats gained over 40 House seats, seven governorships, and some state offices. The good news that year is the GOP held and gained in the Senate




Even Kansas elected a Democrat governor. Kansas!! A red state!!


Democrats won by mostly making the election a  referendum on Trump. And they only have to flip three or four seats to win the HOR next year


Brian Kemp choosing not to run in next years Georgia Senate race is a disappointment, IMO

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Another worthless poll  -- who are the asking about Trump's approval  rating??  I give him 4 out of 5 stars.  He's turned this country around in a remarkable short time.  It's our do-nothing Congress that's concerning.  They are the ones that we need to worry about in 2026.

It's not a poll it's a polling aggregate, and it was pretty accurate in times past. Low approval will dampen GOP turnout in 2026

[Bigun]

Having run campaigns, my motto still stands - campaign your butt off right up to the time the polls close on election day. Never put your trust in any poll or media punditry, ever.

 

[libertybele]

This is the same type of denial that a few of us saw during the 2017-2018 cycle

There were a few of us here warning that Trump was threatening  the GOP’s majority that many of us fought hard to regrow after the 2008 debacle. Yet, like now, there were too many here that chose to deny reality


Then the 2018 midterms came. The Democrats gained over 40 House seats, seven governorships, and some state offices. The good news that year is the GOP held and gained in the Senate




Even Kansas elected a Democrat governor. Kansas!! A red state!!


Democrats won by mostly making the election a  referendum on Trump. And they only have to flip three or four seats to win the HOR next year


Brian Kemp choosing not to run in next years Georgia Senate race is a disappointment, IMO

What's likely to sink the GOP in 2026 is that they won't be able to ride on Trump's coattails.  He'll be in his last term as  president and the GOP hasn't shown any clear path nor message. IMHO those who simply campaign that they support Trump will lose.  They have to identify what they stand for. Their message may be exactly identical to Trump's but they have to own it, not rely on Trump as their identifier.

[LMAO]

What's likely to sink the GOP in 2026 is that they won't be able to ride on Trump's coattails. 

No

What’s likely to sink the GOP in 2026 is similar to what sank the Democrats in 2024.

When voters are unhappy with the economy and the general direction of the country, they take it out on the incumbent and their party


The GOP is making the same mistakes the Democrats made in 2024 and paid dearly for it


Midterms are usually tough for whatever party holds the WH. It would not be outside the norm for the GOP to lose at least on chamber. More so if the incumbent president isn’t particularly popular with voters.