Everything you say is true. I dabbled in cattle a while back. Too many variables. And way too much work. I just lease my acreage now and let someone else have the headache, lol. But most people don't understand the work that goes into their hamburger. It's at the grocery store in a package...what's the problem? I appreciate anyone that stays in the business.
My last few years at it were just prior to covid... I went in partners with a buddy who had the land and the herd anyway... I would invest in six angus feeder steers annually (across 2 years) - purchase as feeder steers, a proportional payment in feed and vet, and a reduced price for the pasture (he had the room for em anyway).
I just rode his averages... and it was good for him because he was dealing with fixed prices and my addition (and others) let him buy into bigger lots. And I would pitch in and handle his chores if he could not.
But even so, it was a crap-shoot, man. The idea was to profit enough that 2 of those beeves (1 per year) are cut and wrapped for nothing. That was the break-point, not really profit oriented... It took twelve beeves to 'pay for' two. And that usually almost kinda worked out.
The prices float, all the way around, so you never know what's gonna hit you.... so the whole thing is a bet. The worst year, one of my tagged steers got sick (which is rare) and wound up having to be put down. Since no one figured out what happened, he wound up feeding the coyotes. That loss made that two year venture hurt a bit...For that time frame I paid out 25% of cut and wrapped price. But mostly it worked out alright.
But I am glad I bowed out (well, I had other things to worry about) since the whole covid thing... Tripling prices on feed and hay... tripling prices on feeder steers and cow/calf... I don't think I would have made my 'free' beef since.
