Surface Forces: The Decline of Autonomy in Naval Warfare
October 19, 2025: The drone revolution, which began during the current war in Ukraine, forced armies and air forces to rethink how they operate and adjust to dealing with thousands of cheap drones rather than heretofore traditional weapons like artillery and tanks. Ukraine defeated and largely destroyed the Russian Black Sea fleet with a few anti-ship missiles and hundreds of aerial and naval drones. Ukraine never had a navy, other than some patrol boats. But using drones they defeated Russian naval forces that had long dominated the Black Sea and blockaded Ukrainian ports that handled the export of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products as well as vital imports.
Most of the actual fighting was done by Ukrainians operating drones, especially First Person View or FPV drones. The drone operator uses a headset that enables him to see what the drone video camera sees. The larger naval drones sometimes had a wireless connection to a land based operator. But these drones were also equipped to operate autonomously if the wireless links with the operator were disrupted.
Noting the Ukrainian experiences, navies, especially the U.S. Navy and the marines that are transported by the navy, began to experiment with drones and experience the way decision making shifted to drone operators, who have to make decisions quickly and cannot rely on a hierarchy of superiors to manage everything they do. The Ukrainian experience demonstrated that you train drone operators and then turn them loose in the combat zone.
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