Russia’s Black Sea Failures Are Lessons for the South China Sea
By Lieutenant Roland M. Kolwitz, U.S. Navy
September 2025 Proceedings Vol. 151/9/1,471
Without any navy to speak of, Ukraine has been able to destroy one-third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, has pushed the Russian Navy out of the Sea of Azov, and is even forcing Russia to abandon its port at Sevastopol in annexed Crimea.1 Ukraine has used two main capabilities to achieve these victories: coastal defense cruise missiles (CDCMs) and unmanned surface vessels (USVs) as one-way attack boats.2 These systems are not revolutionary and have been used regularly by smaller forces to attempt to achieve victory over larger and more technologically advanced ones. Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have both implemented similar strategies to offset their lack of naval power.3
In the Black Sea, Ukraine’s effectiveness is amplified by Russia’s failure to modernize its navy.4 For this reason, it is important to avoid drawing broad conclusions about the effectiveness of USVs and CDCMs or to declare them a revolution in naval warfare. Nevertheless, they could be force multipliers for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps in the event of a conflict in the South China Sea.
One of Ukraine’s early naval victories in the ongoing war was the sinking of the Moskva, a Russian Soviet-era guided-missile cruiser.5 Ukraine used two shore-launched Neptune antiship cruise missiles—subsonic Ukrainian-built missiles similar to the U.S.-built Harpoon—to destroy the Moskva.6 This was a particularly surprising victory, as the Moskva was thought to be a capable air-defense platform with multiple 3D air-search radars. Some have argued she was busy tracking a drone when the missiles were fired; however, it should not have been hard for the Russian flagship to track and engage three air contacts at once.7 The Moskva also may have been blind to the in-bound missiles because the fire-control radar for her surface-to-air missiles did not appear to be operating.8 While this would explain why the cruiser could not defend herself with her arsenal of surface-to-air missiles, it does not explain why she did not use other countermeasures or engage with any of her six AK630 close-in weapon systems.9
Ukrainian forces hit and damaged the Russian flagship Moskva with two R-360 Neptune antiship missiles fired from a shore-based battery. The missile strike caused a fire that spread to the ship’s ammunition, causing the explosion that led to the cruiser’s sinking.
Ukrainian forces hit and damaged the Russian flagship Moskva with two R-360 Neptune antiship missiles fired from a shore-based battery. The missile strike caused a fire that spread to the ship’s ammunition, causing the explosion that led to the cruiser’s sinking. OSINT Technical via Twitter
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2025/september/russias-black-sea-failures-are-lessons-south-china-sea
