All Aboard! California High-Speed Rail May Connect Bakersfield, Merced by 2032

[IsailedawayfromFR]

How about operating losses of $100 million per year on a successful build? Private corporations would fire anyone involved and cease operations.  Newsom is firing on all cylinders instead.  Oh wait, there's more.  Another 7 years to get the first train running.

A massive monument to liberal failure forever being built.

All Aboard! California High-Speed Rail May Connect Bakersfield, Merced by 2032
California’s high-speed rail line could connect rural Merced to Bakersfield by 2032, local authorities say, though it will operate at a massive loss.


That’s according to an annual report released Friday by the California High-Speed Rail Authority — the first report after the Trump administration canceled $4 billion in federal funding to the project, which has long since abandoned the idea of linking San Francisco to Los Angeles.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has clung to the rural portion of the project, even after canceling the San Francisco-to-L.A. segment in his first weeks in office in 2019.

Currently, Merced and Bakersfield are easily connected by ordinary road and rail, or — in a pinch — by air. The lack of demand for high-speed rail is reflected in the annual report’s own projections, which says that upon completion, “This service would generate a passenger revenue of $39.28 million to $55.6 million. … Ancillary revenue (e.g. parking, retail, advertising, and broadband) is projected to be approximately $16 million to $34 million. However, the operation and maintenance costs are forecasted to be between $120.6 million and $122.1 million annually.”

The report describes a potential link between the broader San Francisco and Los Angeles areas that could be built by 2038, at a cost of $87 billion. The original referendum authorizing the project in 2008 promised to build a direct line between the two cities, taking three hours to travel, at a cost of $33 billion by 2020.

A different high-speed rail line, launched by private investors, could eventually connect L.A. and Las Vegas.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/08/25/all-aboard-california-high-speed-rail-may-connect-bakersfield-merced-by-2032/

[rustynail]

Will the tickets be subsidized?

[PeteS in CA]

Nothing against the Cities of Bakersfield and Merced, but why? Has the SR99* highway magically ceased to exist? Or allowed by highway-hating Caltrans to crumble into un-usability?

* Before I-5, the main highway from SoCal to Washington.

[DefiantMassRINO]

California's High-Speed Rail boondoggle sounds a lot like Massachusetts' Big Dig boondoggle of the 1990s.

As long as the Feds kept providing funding, the project kept falling behind schedule and going over budget.  Once the Fed money stopped coming, Mass was desperate to finish the project ASAP.  They funded it by syphoning funds from other state transportation projects.

Feds need to make transportation project funding contingent upon meeting project milestones, on time and on budget, before throwing dollars at the states.

Feds should also clawback any transporation project funds that are spent expeditiously.  Sometimes the states sit on the money and use it to backstop their budgets.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

California's High-Speed Rail boondoggle sounds a lot like Massachusetts' Big Dig boondoggle of the 1990s.

Feds need to make transportation project funding contingent upon meeting project milestones, on time and on budget, before throwing dollars at the states.

Feds should also clawback any transporation project funds that are spent expeditiously.  Sometimes the states sit on the money and use it to backstop their budgets.

Why should the rest of the states subsidize a transportation project wholly within the state in the first place?

[PeteS in CA]

Feds' involvement started either very late in GWB's Administration or early in OhBummer!'s. I am not sure GWB would have thought much about the proposed routes and extensions being entirely within CA; OhBummer! would not have cared.

IMO, the routing has been moronic, from square one. There are existing rail rights-of-way from the Land of LA, through the Coast Ranges, all the way to SF (through San Jose), and from SF to Sacto. Upgrading/expanding those would have been comparatively inexpensive and easy. The moronic route would instead go through an un-selected way across at least one earthquake fault, take a third major route - I-5 and SR99 being the first two - through Central Valley farm land, make multiple stops in several larger cities (how is that "high speed"?!!!), and then into Sacto, which is not a major business center (compared to SF and San Jose).

One of the frustrating realities of politics is that big projects garner attention and votes; "simply" maintaining and improving existing infrastructure is "boring".

[DefiantMassRINO]

Why repair stuff, when you could let if fail and create 'crisis'?

Politiicians don't get filled potholes named after them, but, oooo, a shiny new bridge, choo choo, or public building would be a great opportunity for immortality.

History remembers the pharoahs who built the pyramids, but not the pharoahs who built or fixed grain silos and metal foundaries.

[GtHawk]

Feds' involvement started either very late in GWB's Administration or early in OhBummer!'s. I am not sure GWB would have thought much about the proposed routes and extensions being entirely within CA; OhBummer! would not have cared.

IMO, the routing has been moronic, from square one. There are existing rail rights-of-way from the Land of LA, through the Coast Ranges, all the way to SF (through San Jose), and from SF to Sacto. Upgrading/expanding those would have been comparatively inexpensive and easy. The moronic route would instead go through an un-selected way across at least one earthquake fault, take a third major route - I-5 and SR99 being the first two - through Central Valley farm land, make multiple stops in several larger cities (how is that "high speed"?!!!), and then into Sacto, which is not a major business center (compared to SF and San Jose).

One of the frustrating realities of politics is that big projects garner attention and votes; "simply" maintaining and improving existing infrastructure is "boring".

Federal funding started under the Barry O. Administration to the tune of 3.4 billion and had received almost 7 billion before Trump pulled an additional 4 billion this year.

Authorized by voters in 2008, broke ground in 2015 and phase one was supposed to be SanFranshitco to Anaheim….7 billion flushed away and now it’s Bakersfield to Merced? So all that concrete poured for elevated rail in the middle of nowhere are simply monuments to the screwing of California and federal taxpayers contributions to the democrat party and their cronies.

[MeganC]

CAHSR this past week or so announced they plan to skip Merced and instead try to connect to CalTrain in Gilroy. This makes sense because the the first segment completed would be SF to Bakersfield.

[PeteS in CA]

CAHSR this past week or so announced they plan to skip Merced and instead try to connect to CalTrain in Gilroy. This makes sense because the the first segment completed would be SF to Bakersfield.

Geographically, the Gilroy or Morgan Hill area is like the wide top of a funnel. Once you go a bit northward you have the ocean to the west and the southern end of the bay to the east. There not a lot of room for a new right-of-way along the San Francisco Peninsula, and most of it is mountains. BTW, there's this geographic feature the runs through those mountains from near Los Gatos into the ocean near SF. So using the existing CalTrain right-of-way is about the only viable routing up the peninsula. But this then invites the question, why wasn't the entire existing train route through the Coast Ranges from the Land of LA used.

BTW, I do not at all believe "high-speed rail" is necessary. Just expand LAX and other LA and Orange Counties airports, clean up the main train station area in LA (ICE could help with that!), if actually needed, expand existing passenger rail from LA to SF, and where needed, fix up and expand the I-5 and SR99 freeways through the Central Valley, from the Tehachapis north to Sacto (or even Redding or Weed or Yreka). It would be boring, but it would address existing and foreseeable need.

[MeganC]

Geographically, the Gilroy or Morgan Hill area is like the wide top of a funnel. Once you go a bit northward you have the ocean to the west and the southern end of the bay to the east. There not a lot of room for a new right-of-way along the San Francisco Peninsula, and most of it is mountains. BTW, there's this geographic feature the runs through those mountains from near Los Gatos into the ocean near SF. So using the existing CalTrain right-of-way is about the only viable routing up the peninsula. But this then invites the question, why wasn't the entire existing train route through the Coast Ranges from the Land of LA used.

BTW, I do not at all believe "high-speed rail" is necessary. Just expand LAX and other LA and Orange Counties airports, clean up the main train station area in LA (ICE could help with that!), if actually needed, expand existing passenger rail from LA to SF, and where needed, fix up and expand the I-5 and SR99 freeways through the Central Valley, from the Tehachapis north to Sacto (or even Redding or Weed or Yreka). It would be boring, but it would address existing and foreseeable need.

CAHSR intends to use the CalTrain tracks at 100mph or so for the trip into San Francisco. Those tracks start at Gilroy.

[Fishrrman]

I have to ask:

How many people travel from Bakersfield to Merced each day?

How many trains will they fill?

[GtHawk]

I have to ask:

How many people travel from Bakersfield to Merced each day?

How many trains will they fill?

How much cow shit can Merced use? I mean I know it’s grown since I worked on the universities microscopy center, but still.

[PeteS in CA]

I have to ask:

How many people travel from Bakersfield to Merced each day?

How many trains will they fill?

The cities are about 170 miles apart, so not many do that 3 hour commute. I have no way of guessing, beyond the potential ridership having near-zero commuters. So the total potential might be more than zero, but I doubt that it would be in the triple digits.

[corbe]

Savoy Brown 'Train to Nowhere'


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZndMjqFNTMo

[Smokin Joe]

It took roughly six years to build the line from Omaha to Sacramento, with two teams meeting at Promontory Point, Utah, in 1869.

They did not have modern earth moving equipment, nor the other specialized track laying equipment we see today. It was mostly done by hand labor, dynamite, and horse (and likely mule or ox) power. But it got done.

This is someone's cash cow, and they are still milking it.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Feds' involvement started either very late in GWB's Administration or early in OhBummer!'s. I am not sure GWB would have thought much about the proposed routes and extensions being entirely within CA; OhBummer! would not have cared.

IMO, the routing has been moronic, from square one. There are existing rail rights-of-way from the Land of LA, through the Coast Ranges, all the way to SF (through San Jose), and from SF to Sacto. Upgrading/expanding those would have been comparatively inexpensive and easy. The moronic route would instead go through an un-selected way across at least one earthquake fault, take a third major route - I-5 and SR99 being the first two - through Central Valley farm land, make multiple stops in several larger cities (how is that "high speed"?!!!), and then into Sacto, which is not a major business center (compared to SF and San Jose).

One of the frustrating realities of politics is that big projects garner attention and votes; "simply" maintaining and improving existing infrastructure is "boring".

Houston is likely #2 to LA in traffic.  It had a large hub and spoke of rail lines into downtown that have been transformed to large highways to help with all the traffic.

There is zero chance that the planned high speed rail to Dallas will take place as farmers between the cities are up in arms over land being taken from them

[IsailedawayfromFR]

CAHSR this past week or so announced they plan to skip Merced and instead try to connect to CalTrain in Gilroy.

Oh goody, now train riders can go to the garlic capital of the country.

[PeteS in CA]

Oh goody, now train riders can go to the garlic capital of the country.

Joking aside, as I posted above, "Geographically, the Gilroy or Morgan Hill area is like the wide top of a funnel. Once you go a bit northward you have the ocean to the west and the southern end of the bay to the east. There (is) not a lot of room for a new right-of-way along the San Francisco Peninsula, and most of it is mountains." There is also an existing route (SR152 follows it) through the Coast Ranges from the Central Valley to the southern Santa Clara Valley (= Gilroy area), Pacheco Pass. So this segment of the routing makes geographic sense. BTW, had the existing route from LA to SF been used, that also runs through Gilroy.

[MeganC]

Joking aside, as I posted above, "Geographically, the Gilroy or Morgan Hill area is like the wide top of a funnel. Once you go a bit northward you have the ocean to the west and the southern end of the bay to the east. There (is) not a lot of room for a new right-of-way along the San Francisco Peninsula, and most of it is mountains." There is also an existing route (SR152 follows it) through the Coast Ranges from the Central Valley to the southern Santa Clara Valley (= Gilroy area), Pacheco Pass. So this segment of the routing makes geographic sense. BTW, had the existing route from LA to SF been used, that also runs through Gilroy.

From what I am seeing there is now no active plan to build an exclusive HSR right of way from Gilroy to San Francisco. Either HSR passengers will transfer to Cal Train at Gilroy or the HSR trains will slow down and use the existing Cal Train right of way for the trip to San Francisco.

In other words it is looking like that SF-to-LA trip on 'high speed rail' will take four or five hours. Maybe even six.

[PeteS in CA]

FWIW a trip from San Jose to MouseLand is 6-8 hours, depending on pit stops and traffic.

[MeganC]

FWIW a trip from San Jose to MouseLand is 6-8 hours, depending on pit stops and traffic.

I know.

So for $150bn or more you can take a train to Disneyland or in about the same amount of time you can just drive. 

[Fishrrman]

In the meantime...

Amtrak has just introduced it's Acela // equipment into revenue service. Took them a couple of years longer than originally planned, and only a few sets in service as of yet, but they've got them running.

I think they're homely (much moreso than the original Acelas), but the interiors are supposed to be quite nice. I never ran the original Acelas, only deadheaded on them,  they were pretty comfortable inside. I did run the HHP8 locomotives, which were a double-ended version of the Acela power unit for pulling conventional passenger equipment. They actually ran pretty well once you were used to them, but still had quirks (which shortened their service lives after I retired).