CERES Satellite Data Suggests Low Climate Sensitivity
16 hours ago Anthony
From the Friends of Science Society Newsletter, where they give our own Willis Eschenbach props and suggestions for his important recent work – Anthony
The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of Earth’s radiation budget and clouds. CERES instruments on several satellites measure longwave and shortwave radiation from the Earth. The longwave radiation is the radiation emitted upward to space from the Earth’s surface and clouds. The upward shortwave radiation is the reflected solar radiation which doesn’t enter the climate system. If the outgoing longwave radiation is less than the absorbed solar radiation, there is a positive top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance (imbalance) which increases the global average temperature.
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a measure of how much the Earth’s global average surface temperature will eventually increase in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Image by Anthony Watts
Willis Eschenbach used the CERES database, which gives the monthly radiative fluxes in each 1° latitude by 1° longitude starting March 2000, to calculate the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to greenhouse gases. He produced a graph of imbalance versus the surface temperature by 1° latitude by 1° longitude with time averaged over 24 years. Eschenbach applied a lowess fit to the data. He calculated the slope of that fit and calculated the area weighted imbalance per degree of temperature change. Eschenbach asks “How much does the earth have to warm up to restore the 3.7 watts per square meter (W/m2) of TOA radiation imbalance that is said to result from a doubling of CO2 (2xCO2)?” Willis says the amount of warming required to rebalance the imbalance is called the ECS, but I believe that isn’t correct. The imbalance is not at an equilibrium state but is the result of a continual increase of greenhouse gases.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/07/27/ceres-satellite-data-suggests-low-climate-sensitivity/
