Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2025
Excerpts:
Russian officials and state media continue to set information conditions to reject the US-proposed 28-point peace plan, indicating that the Kremlin is actively conditioning the Russian people to not accept anything less than a full victory in Ukraine. Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa commented on the peace plan, stating that any plan must adhere to Russia's full demands.
Chepa reiterated that Russia's objective is for any peace settlement to address the alleged “root causes” of its war in Ukraine, a deliberately vague term that the Kremlin has long used as shorthand for its original war justifications and demands, such as the destruction of Ukrainian sovereignty and the NATO alliance.
Chepa implied that the proposed peace plan offers more concessions to Russia than previous proposals but is still insufficient to address Russia's maximalist demands. Russian state TV channels and milbloggers highlighted similar narratives, including those about how Russia would only participate in a peace plan that eliminates the root causes of the war - implying that Russia is not interested in any peace negotiations until it accomplishes its goals on the battlefield.
State Duma Defense Committee Member Andrei Kolesnik claimed that Russia will not give up any territories in Ukraine that it has illegally annexed, even areas that Russia does not fully occupy such as Zaporizhia Oblast.
Kolesnik’s statement indicates that the Kremlin is uninterested in making any territorial compromises. Kolesnik also reiterated the false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, such that Ukraine should submit to Russia's full demands now.
Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Head and Duma Deputy Leonid Slutsky stated that the peace plan is a “good basis” for a settlement but that Russian advances in eastern Ukraine are “equally compelling arguments” - implying that Russia remains committed to continuing its war in Ukraine on the battlefield.
ISW continues to assess that a Russian victory is not inevitable, however, and that Ukraine and the West can leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force the Kremlin to negotiate and make real concessions.
Ukrainian, American, and European delegations will meet on November 23 to discuss the US-proposed peace plan to end the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on November 22 that Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak will lead a new Ukrainian negotiating delegation.
The delegation includes ... Zelensky stated that Ukrainian, American, British, French, and German delegations will meet on November 23 in Switzerland to discuss the proposed 28-point peace plan.
Reuters reported that a US official stated that US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, whom US President Donald Trump reportedly appointed as a special envoy in the peace negotiations, will attend the upcoming talks in Geneva alongside US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Ukrainian military officials continue to indicate that Ukrainian forces are pushing back Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk - in contrast to repeated Russian claims of seizing the town. Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov stated on November 21 that Russian forces continue to try to infiltrate into Kupyansk, but that the number of Russian soldiers in the northern part of the town has decreased to about 40 personnel.
The Russian military command began to exaggerate Russian successes in Kupyansk in late August 2025 - a narrative that the Kremlin has only intensified in recent weeks.
Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov and Russian Western Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev notably claimed to Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 20 that Russian forces had seized Kupyansk, and Russian milbloggers subsequently denied this claim.
ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces in the Kupyansk direction continue to contest the town and are in the process of rolling back a Russian effort to infiltrate the town.
ISW has not observed sufficient geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces have seized close to all of Kupyansk as of November 22.
The situation in the Pokrovsk direction remains serious and dynamic as Russian forces continue attempts to seize Pokrovsk itself and encircle Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). Russian milbloggers claimed on November 21 and 22 that Russian forces seized Pokrovsk and advanced north of the town.
Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad highway in southern Rivne (between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad).
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces have begun attacking into Myrnohrad along the T-0504 from Rivne and advanced in eastern Myrnohrad, likely in an attempt to fix Ukrainian forces within Myrnohrad while also tightening the encirclement around Myrnohrad and blocking Ukrainian egress routes from the town.
A Ukrainian service member acknowledged on November 21 that Ukrainian forces “completely” lost Pokrovsk and noted that Russian forces are attempting to narrow the egress route near Myrnohrad and Rivne.
The service member further stated that Russian forces have cut off all logistics into Myrnohrad and that Ukrainian forces will likely be unable to withdraw from the remaining, limited opening in the pocket.
The Russian military command continues to focus a significant number of forces to close the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket, which is resulting in heavy Russian losses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on November 22 that Russia has concentrated over 150,000 servicemembers for offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction.
Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Major General Andriy Hnatov told German outlet Die Zeit on November 20 that the Russian military command has amassed a large number of troops to take Pokrovsk and that there are about 400 Russian soldiers within the town.
Hnatov noted that urban areas are easier to defend and more difficult to seize, resulting in high Russian losses. The Ukrainian Eastern Operation Task Force reported on November 22 that Russian forces are maintaining a high intensity of attacks and are primarily concentrating efforts on seizing Pokrovsk itself, despite heavy losses forcing the Russian military command to tap into operational reserves.
The Russian military command notably redeployed elements of the relatively elite 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to the Pokrovsk direction to support Russian efforts to seize the pocket, likely due to the slowing tempo of Russian advances in the area.
ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will very likely complete the seizure of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad after a 21-month campaign, though the timing and operational implications of these seizures remain unclear at this time.
Authorities recently reported multiple drone sightings over air bases and airports in the Netherlands. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans reported that authorities observed unidentified drones flying over Volkel Air Base near Eindhoven, a Royal Netherlands Air Force base that hosts a US Air Force squadron as part of NATO, on the evening of November 21.
Brekelmans reported that attempts to shoot down the drones were unsuccessful and that authorities never recovered the drones after they flew away. Brekelmans reported that authorities also observed multiple drones at Eindhoven Airport on November 22 and subsequently suspended civilian and military air traffic.
Dutch authorities have not identified an actor behind the drone overflights as of this writing. These are the latest in a series of drone sightings over European airports and air bases in recent weeks, which come against the backdrop of Russia's intensifying “Phase Zero” campaign to destabilize Europe, undermine NATO's cohesion, and set the political, informational, and psychological conditions for a potential future Russian war against NATO.
Ukrainian forces reportedly recently downed at least 19 Kinzhal ballistic missiles with electronic warfare (EW), likely in response to Ukraine's Patriot air defense interceptor missile shortages and Russian Kinzhal modifications. Servicemembers of the Ukrainian Night Watch EW unit told online outlet 404 in an article published on November 20 that the unit downed 19 Kinzhals over the past 2 weeks (roughly from November 6 to 20) and later revealed to Forbes that the unit may have downed 21 Kinzhals over an unspecified time period.
Night Watch service members stated that they use the Lima EW jamming system, which spoofs the Kinzhals’ navigation system by creating a disruption field that prevents the missile from communicating with satellites within the Russian GLONASS system. The Lima EW system causes the missile to become confused about its location and rapidly change direction at a high speed, putting excessive stress on the airframe that causes the missile to ultimately fail to reach its target.
A Night Watch service member noted that Ukrainian forces began to jam Kinzhals with the Lima system as an adaptation to Ukraine's shortage of Patriot interceptors and limitations of the air defense systems, likely referring to Russia's new technological innovations that allow Kinzhals to bypass Patriots.
The Financial Times (FT) reported on October 3 that Russia likely recently modified its Iskander-M and Kinzhal ballistic missiles to execute unexpected diversionary maneuvers during the terminal flight phase to “confuse” Ukrainian Patriot interceptor missiles.
Ukrainian forces have still been able to down Russian ballistic missiles with Patriot systems since the reported Russian modifications.
Ukrainian forces will continue to need both new EW systems and Patriot systems to repel persistent Russian drone and missile threats, particularly Russian ballistic missiles, despite these successful Ukrainian adaptations, in order to ensure continuous and reliable defenses throughout the country.
Russian forces are continuing to commit war crimes on the battlefield in Ukraine, particularly near Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian General Prosecutor's Office opened an investigation on November 22 into a video showing Russian forces executing 5 captured and unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Kotlyne (southwest of Pokrovsk) on November 19.
Article 13 of the Geneva Convention prohibits any unlawful act or omission by the detaining power which causes death or seriously endangers the health of a POW while in custody.
ISW has observed an increase in Russian war crimes in the Pokrovsk direction in recent weeks as Russian forces have approached and infiltrated the town.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-22-2025/
