Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26, 2025
Excerpts:
NATO jets recently scrambled in response to another Russian flight close to NATO airspace as European states struggle with unidentified, likely Russian, drone activity in border areas and near infrastructure. NATO Air Command reported on September 25 that it scrambled 2 Hungarian Gripen fighter jets in response to one Russian Su-30 fighter jet, 1 Su-35 fighter jet, and 3 MiG-31 interceptor jets that flew close to, but did not enter, Latvian airspace.
German authorities identified several unknown drones flying near the Danish border in the northern German state Schleswig-Holstein overnight on September 25 to 26. Schleswig-Holstein Interior Minister Sabine Sütterlin-Waack stated that German authorities are investigating the incursion as the origin of the drones remains unclear ...
The Danish National Police reported on September 25 that it briefly closed the Aalborg Airport on the northern tip of Denmark's Zealand Island, which the Danish military also uses, due to unidentified drone activity.
Danish Security Intelligence Service Director General Finn Borch Andersen stated ... these incidents resemble a model of hybrid warfare seen elsewhere in Europe and that Denmark assesses a high risk of Russian sabotage in Denmark ...
... but the recent uptick in hostile drone activity while Russia continues aerial incursions and posturing against NATO states is notable, and strongly suggests that Russia is also behind the unidentified drone incidents.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is pursuing a campaign to test NATO air defenses and political will as part of a broader effort to collect actionable intelligence that Russia may then apply to a potential future conflict against NATO.
Ukraine's European allies continue to respond to increasing Russian aggression against Europe. European defense ministers met on September 26 to discuss the establishment of a “drone” wall along the European border with Russia in Ukraine in order to detect, track, and intercept drones that violate European airspace and agreed to an approach that covers air, sea, and land.
The EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius stated that Russia is testing the EU and NATO and that the response must be “firm, united, and immediate” and that the EU’s immediate priorities are to improve the EU’s drone detection, tracking, and interception capabilities ...
Russian officials continue efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine and defensive measures against Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke at the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on September 25 and claimed that the collective West provoked the war in Ukraine and that NATO and the European Union (EU) declared a “real war” on Russia through Ukraine and are “directly participating in” this war.
Russian officials have repeatedly portrayed the West as the aggressor in the war in Ukraine in order to avoid blame and justify further rhetorical and kinetic provocations against its European neighbors.
Russian Ambassador to France Alexei Meshkov claimed on September 26 that Russia would consider it war, if NATO countries shot down Russian aircraft “allegedly” violating the airspace of member countries, and accused Europe of failing to provide evidence that Russia has been involved in the recent drone incursions in Europe.
Meshkov did not mention that Russian penetrations of NATO airspace with military drones and aircraft are themselves Russian acts of war against NATO to which NATO has so far chosen not to respond by shooting down Russian aircraft ... Russia's ongoing effort to push the limit of what provocations NATO is willing to absorb as an “acceptable” escalation ...
The United States is reportedly considering lifting existing restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use US-produced weapons to strike legitimate military targets located in Russian territory. A Ukrainian official and a senior US official told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on September 26 that Ukrainian President Zelensky asked US President Trump during their September 23 meeting for additional unspecified long-range missiles and approval to use these missiles against military targets in Russian territory.
Trump reportedly replied that he does not oppose this idea, but did not commit to lifting these restrictions.
Zelensky recently confirmed reports that he also asked Trump for US-produced Tomahawk cruise missiles during the September 23 meeting.
Ukraine created a new Unmanned Air Defense Systems service. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the new service on September 26 and stated that the service is subordinate to the Ukrainian Air Force and will deploy units equipped with interceptor drones to combat Russian Shahed-type drones ...
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-26-2025/
