Learning From History: Seek Patterns, Not Exceptions
by Samuel Reynolds
06.03.2025 at 06:00am
Learning From History: Seek Patterns, Not Exceptions Image
On March 15, 2025 Small Wars Journal published an open letter by Yurij Holowinsky and Keith D. Dickson to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In this letter, they used the example of Finland’s experience since 1940 as the inspiration for advice about how to bring the Russo-Ukrainian War to an end in a way that best safeguards Ukraine’s current and future interests. There is, however, a fundamental issue with their open letter that requires highlighting.
The issue in question is how they use history to support their advice. To champion a particular policy by drawing strong comparisons with a single historical event – with the underlying assumption that its outcomes could be replicated in the modern day – is an improper and irresponsible use of history as an advisory tool. The real source of good historical learning for advisory purposes is in observable patterns – not one-offs.
Seek Patterns, Not Exceptions
Just because something happened before doesn’t necessarily mean that it will happen again. Every situation is driven by unique individuals, ideas, and conditions as well as shaped by each new event in often unpredictable ways. Even the most likely outcomes can turn out very differently than might be imagined. As such, using a timeline which stretches across eighty years (as Holowinsky and Dickson do) to advocate for a decision in the here-and-now is overly ambitious to the point of unwise.
None of this is to say that history can never be used to potentially inform future events – it can and should be – but there is a specific way in which it should be done: namely, finding patterns which suggest types of outcomes that may be more probable in similar situations, both now and in future.
https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/06/03/learning-from-history-seek-patterns-not-exceptions/
