Trump’s Polling Better Than Media Thinks
ANALYSIS
By J.T. Young
The dispersed shot-pattern of President Trump’s approval ratings proves he’s still confounding pollsters. For weeks, and especially since Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on what he dubbed Liberation Day, the establishment media’s prevailing narrative has been that the president is plummeting in the polls. However, a closer look at today’s polling reveals a far different story.
There is no avoiding the fact that Donald Trump is a divisive politician. RealClearPolitics’ historical average of his national favorability polling shows his first (7/16/16) favorability reading as 26.3%-61.3%. On Jan. 1, 2017, just days before he took office following his November 2016 upset win, he was still underwater by nearly 4 percentage points. Even around the time of his 2025 inauguration, Trump’s favorability was barely positive at 48.1%-47.9%.
Trump’s popularity has never been a good predictor of his electoral performance or the public’s appraisal of his job performance. But if you listen to the establishment media’s prevailing narrative, Trump’s divisiveness, his second term’s frenetic pace, and especially his tariffs have coincided to catch up to him.
According to RCP’s average of Trump’s national job approval polling, on May 12, the day the administration announced a 90-day ceasefire in the tariff war with China (and before this hiatus could have an impact on his polling numbers), Trump’s differential was 45.8%-50.1% – a net negative-4.3 percentage points.
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/05/20/trumps_polling_better_than_media_thinks.html
