Hard data suggests tariff-driven inflation and recession fears may be overblown
Courtenay Brown
With major indicators from April — the month of peak tariff uncertainty — now in, none show the kinds of recessionary or inflationary conditions implied by business and consumer surveys.
Why it matters: Warnings and anecdotes are taking on greater importance as signs of how tariffs are working their way through the economy.
The big picture: New data out Thursday showed steady retail sales and a surprising drop in wholesale prices in April. So far, so good.
But also Thursday morning, the country's largest retailer warned that it will not be able to absorb tariff-related price increases — even considering the trade war pullback announced earlier this week.
Walmart, known for its low prices, will pass some of those costs onto the consumer. If Walmart can't hold the line, it's hard to see how other retailers might be able to.
What they're saying: "We're wired for everyday low prices, but the magnitude of these increases is more than any retailer can absorb," Walmart CFO John David Rainey told CNBC on Thursday.
"It's more than any supplier can absorb. And so I'm concerned that consumer is going to start seeing higher prices. You'll begin to see that, likely towards the tail end of this month, and then certainly much more in June."
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https://www.axios.com/2025/05/15/tariffs-inflation-recession-data
