Live Thread- April 10, 2025 Financial News and Updates

[catfish1957]

This morning's briefing....

VIX-  37, down 17 from this time yesterday.

DOW Futures  Down 551
NASDAQ After Hours-  Down 390

Gold- $3082/oz. Up $51 since yesterday
Oil- $56.42/bbl. Up 8% since yesterday

Overnight markets- Pac Rim-

Australia-    +4.54%
Japan-   +9.13%
Hong Kong-   +2.06%
South Korea-   +6.60%
India-   -0%
China-  +1.16%

Funny business continues in China...  Markerts sill slightly up, despite being singled out in US Trade War.  There could have been some vacuum vapors of overall market sentiment, but on a daily basis, their markets defy conventional thinking


Mid Day- Europe

England-    +4.44%
France-      +5.36%
Germany-   +5.82%
Euro 50-     -+5.53%

Inertia prevails in Europe, as this is mimicking the moves late day yesterday here.

What am I watching today?   General news ticker from DJT.  The past few days of analysis on fundamentals has  pretty much been a pointless exercise.  This is the orange market, and major market moves and swings are most based DJT moods and tweets.  I do want to continue for us to watch closely geo-political issues with China and Iran.  Both could be flash points soon.  I could be wrong, but the Chicoms are kind of getting close to being painted into an economic corner where they may feel embolden to make a move and invade Taiwan, as they have the most to lose in this tariff escalation.  In Iran, I understand the Mullah's are within hours of reaching weapons enrichment grade Urianium.  I don't think the U.S., nor Isreal will allow them to  start assembling Nukes.   Events in either of these places could easily start putting tariffs in the background as far as economic drivers.

[catfish1957]

9:30 CDT update

VIX- 38

DOW down 2%
NASDAQ- Down 3%
Oil  Down 4.25%  $59.71/bbl
Gold- $3165/oz

1/2 half of the market day seems to be floating 0-2% down.  No real impactful news to this moment, though DJT is planning a Presser pretty shortly.

[oldno7]

 In technical trading after a large up bar on any stock, such as yesterday(pick one), a high percentage of the time it is followed by a pullback.
A trader wrote a book on these and called them a Ross hook.(Joe Ross)
I believe that is what we are seeing, today.
I don't particularly trade the hook itself but pay attention to them.
If it is a Ross Hook type move, it should take out yesterdays high in a trading day or 2.

[catfish1957]

In technical trading after a large up bar on any stock, such as yesterday(pick one), a high percentage of the time it is followed by a pullback.
A trader wrote a book on these and called them a Ross hook.(Joe Ross)
I believe that is what we are seeing, today.
I don't particularly trade the hook itself but pay attention to them.
If it is a Ross Hook type move, it should take out yesterdays high in a trading day or 2.

Kind of similar to the old "dead cat bounce" theory.

I've always invested for the long term, and in fact, have never paid short term capital gains on an equity in 45 years.  So I am more focused on fundementals that favor a great product, with a long term demand, great return in Divy, and and with low P/E's.  Then milk the sucker infinitum. 

Wish I was still working in Mar '20, after that crash.  I'd jumped in big time.  My oldest did, and now has some Stock/MF  return bragging rights in the family.

[catfish1957]

Europe down generally down 3-4%, while we are down 4-5%. 

Not sure exactly sure why we are undeperforming today, since the CPI and jobs numbers were decent.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Yesterday must have been a 'dead cat bounce'.  The knives are still falling.

[mystery-ak]

Maybe it will rally this afternoon....

....Trump has a Cabinet meeting any time now so who knows what he will say there that will affect the market....

[catfish1957]

Maybe it will rally this afternoon....

....Trump has a Cabinet meeting any time now so who knows what he will say there that will affect the market....

I hope he avoids comments like they are coming to "Kiss his ass" like he made yesterday.

[catfish1957]

Yesterday must have been a 'dead cat bounce'.  The knives are still falling.

If anything, the past week has been a cold slap of realty to every investor that this thing can swing DOW 3000 points on any given day.
Have said a 100 times that this market is still way overvalued based on what I feel is true value.  Until the Hedgers and speculators are totally spooked, the floor may be as low as March '20, or even lower.

Short volume doesn't seem excessive yet, so on the surface, I think the overall economy is doing okay. I think we are generally going in the right direction.  So IMO, at least in the forseeable future, throw the fundamentals out of the equation, and let's see where the Orange tornado takes us.  Buckle up Dorothy and Toto.

[DCPatriot]

Kind of similar to the old "dead cat bounce" theory.

I've always invested for the long term, and in fact, have never paid short term capital gains on an equity in 45 years.  So I am more focused on fundementals that favor a great product, with a long term demand, great return in Divy, and and with low P/E's.  Then milk the sucker infinitum. 

Wish I was still working in Mar '20, after that crash.  I'd jumped in big time.  My oldest did, and now has some Stock/MF  return bragging rights in the family.

@catfish1957

Did you buy any NEWSMAX on March 30th at $10 @ share?   

[oldno7]

VIX is getting dangerously high, again.

Came close to 55, since retreated to 48.

[catfish1957]

@catfish1957

Did you buy any NEWSMAX on March 30th at $10 @ share?   

@DCPatriot

Gave it some thought, but realized that with their graphics, limited viwership,  and on air talent, they'd never really compete with Fox News.   Yeah that out of the gate action had me second guessing, but when I saw that this thing had exceeded Fox's market cap, I knew it was going to be a speculative bomb.   Watching them briefly on election night was not a good look, and think that is what also finally sold me. Totally void of bells and whistles.

OANN- same.  And the network that strangely made Gaetz an news anchor.

[cato potatoe]

Yesterday must have been a 'dead cat bounce'.  The knives are still falling.

It required a trade war to pop the bubble, but there is downward pressure on equities.  They are just too expensive.

[catfish1957]

VIX still over 40, but it is nice to see some horizontal motion in the market for a change. Markets overnight were mixed, and no drastic losses or gains. 

Exception is Gold.  Another new high this morning. $3245/oz

[catfish1957]

@roamer_1  and other super tech savvy Briefers...

What is your opinion of Intel's recent chip product, and long term prospects?

[roamer_1]

@roamer_1  and other super tech savvy Briefers...

What is your opinion of Intel's recent chip product, and long term prospects?

@catfish1957
Out of my ken. I purposefully stay away from the bleeding edge, so I am unaware until the product crosses my bench. Sorry, you'll have to ask others 

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Europe down generally down 3-4%, while we are down 4-5%. 

Not sure exactly sure why we are undeperforming today, since the CPI and jobs numbers were decent.

Could be a number of countries have taken their public equity away from US trading as a reaction to Trump?

[Hoodat]

@roamer_1  and other super tech savvy Briefers...

What is your opinion of Intel's recent chip product, and long term prospects?

@catfish1957

Intel share price, Jan 12, 1999 - $19.23
Intel share price now -  $19.30

[Free Vulcan]

The market did test the lows and bounced back decently, but not spectacularly.

Barring another unsettling event I expect things to go more or less sideways for awhile.

[Hoodat]

The market did test the lows and bounced back decently, but not spectacularly.

Barring another unsettling event I expect things to go more or less sideways for awhile.

The bottom line here is that the market is overvalued.  And people have known it was overvalued ever since all that free Covid money and Inflation Reduction money flooded the market.

There will be a correction.  And again, people have known there would be a correction at some point.  So don't expect a 20% return in 2025 like you got in 2024.  In fact, you shouldn't be expecting anything.  The rules that were in place when you chose to invest in the market should still be in effect now.  Did you invest for the long term?  Or are you one of those folks who pats himself on the back when the market goes up, then points fingers at others when it goes south.

For myself, I know roughly what year I hope to retire.  Ask me then about stock prices when I'm actually ready to sell.

[catfish1957]

@catfish1957

Intel share price, Jan 12, 1999 - $19.23
Intel share price now -  $19.30

I know.  But sometimes my best bets have been dogs that

(1) had prospects or good plans to turned it around,
(2) are so ovwersold it is crazy,
(3) are ripe as M & A targets.

If there is gleam of redemptive quality, I might put a small amount in.  That is why I was polling our tech savvy folks here, to see if their chip business has any up side.  Or do they have any creative or legacy value in a space that has went full blown AI Chippage like NVIDIA.

Another specific reason I am interested is that 75% of their chip manufacturing is domestic.  If the Chicoms take Taiwan, It'll see some substamtial growth.

[Hoodat]

You're better off finding an upstart AI data management/processing firm with a major client (e.g. Microsoft).  Much bigger upside. 

I also have a co-worker who worked for Intel.  He would never buy Intel stock.   Just saying.

[catfish1957]

You're better off finding an upstart AI data management/processing firm with a major client (e.g. Microsoft).  Much bigger upside. 

I also have a co-worker who worked for Intel.  He would never buy Intel stock.   Just saying.

Great companies , but those are at full realized evaluation.  I've plenty of money in those types.  More bargain hunting with high risk/reward potenital  And if the Chicoms do make a move, I think they'll be a great play just long enough to get the LTCG.

Plus. I have a feeling as hot as AI is, there will be plenty of other chip needs that won't need that level of sophistication.  Think there is a niche, but still researching.....   That's half the fun. 

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Great companies , but those are at full realized evaluation.  I've plenty of money in those types.  More bargain hunting with high risk/reward potenital  And if the Chicoms do make a move, I think they'll be a great play just long enough to get the LTCG.

Plus. I have a feeling as hot as AI is, there will be plenty of other chip needs that won't need that level of sophistication.  Think there is a niche, but still researching.....   That's half the fun.

Yes, it is fun to research, but the rubber hits the road once you hit the purchase button.

So soberly do the homework, then made eyes-wide-open decisions. 

Me, am not taking any big risks in my retirement years.  Have tried some small risk-taking adventures, but they collectively have not panned out.

Pulled back from further adventuring in this and will mostly stick with good dividend paying stocks.

BTW, note how defense stocks have not just weathered the present storm, but have stormed upward against the current.  Glad I had a plan to go forward aggressively in that theater.