Live Thread- April 9, 2025 Financial News and Updates

[catfish1957]

Will create these daily threads while markets are in turmoil

This morning's briefing....

VIX-  Up to 54 

DOW Futures  Down 607
NASDAQ After Hours-  Down 184

Gold- $3082/oz
Oil- $56.42/bbl. Down 5% overnight

Overnight markets- Pac Rim-

Australia-    - 1.80%
Japan-   -3.93%
Hong Kong-   +0.68%
South Korea-   -1.74%
India-   -0.51%
China-  +1.22%

Looks like the Chicoms are doing a governmental capital infusion into their markets.  Which is part of the norm, in their currency manipulation.   As there are no fundementals, to justify and up market.  The exact opposite should be happening.


Mid Day- Europe

England-    -3.76%
France-      -4.09%
Germany-   -3.40%
Euro 50-     -3.94%

Looks like it might get ugly again today.  VIX infers panic.  Europe's drop is especially concerning, and tells me that the footing, we all hope for hasn't been reached yet.   The monetary infusion of what the Chicoms apparently have poured into their market, is a huge escalation, and along with the tariff tit for tat, is creating a game of chicken that neither seem to want to blink.

Now my editorial and personal message and appeal to President Trump.

You are at the crossroads the next few days, specifically on the topic of tariffs.   I have been highly supportive, but there is becoming more and more whispers that you will truly rely on tariffs on the long run.  No better way to kill your consensus within your own supporters than to take this concept to full frontal trade war status.  Very astute people like Musk, Home Depot's CEO, plus  9 conservative Senators on Hannity last night, .....ALL believe that this is a good tactic to level the playing field. Get a consensus of  zero tariffs, then punish the ones who want to continue what you are aptly calling "The cheat".  I agree with them 100%.  Don't let nutjobs lke Navarro talk you into some kind of early industrial era archaic Smootsville. like system.   We do not have the manufacturing base, nor will we be able in time to have one before painting ourselves into eco-isolationist hell.

[catfish1957]

DOW Futures now down 750 at implied open.

If this goes another 24 hours, I think we need to start watching metals pricing.  As that will be near or at the point the the panic starts forcing investors fleeing towards safety, and in this case, that safety might now be the $USD. 

If we see a few more days of crashing oil prices, I think we me some kind of geo-political news out of Russia.  Either unrest,  escalated war, quicker peace terms, etc.  ......  The Russians though squelched, all know what the price of oil does to their livelihoods.

Second, and I kind of alluded to it in my op-ed.  POTUS needs some ironclad wins and agreements with cooperative nations wanting to come to the table.  If he takes a hard line, and they start walking away, I can see a market crash here, possibly down to pandemic lows.  POTUS, do what's right for not only us, but the world.   Isolate the Chicoms. 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I'm hoping this is like the early 80's recession, tough but necessary as it ended the stagflation of the 70's. Lately I'm learning not to be hopeful any more.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Will create these daily threads while markets are in turmoil

This morning's briefing....

VIX-  Up to 54 

DOW Futures  Down 607
NASDAQ After Hours-  Down 184

Gold- $3082/oz
Oil- $56.42/bbl. Down 5% overnight

Overnight markets- Pac Rim-

Australia-    - 1.80%
Japan-   -3.93%
Hong Kong-   +0.68%
South Korea-   -1.74%
India-   -0.51%
China-  +1.22%

Looks like the Chicoms are doing a governmental capital infusion into their markets.  Which is part of the norm, in their currency manipulation.   As there are no fundementals, to justify and up market.  The exact opposite should be happening.


Mid Day- Europe

England-    -3.76%
France-      -4.09%
Germany-   -3.40%
Euro 50-     -3.94%

Looks like it might get ugly again today.  VIX infers panic.  Europe's drop is especially concerning, and tells me that the footing, we all hope for hasn't been reached yet.   The monetary infusion of what the Chicoms apparently have poured into their market, is a huge escalation, and along with the tariff tit for tat, is creating a game of chicken that neither seem to want to blink.

Now my editorial and personal message and appeal to President Trump.

You are at the crossroads the next few days, specifically on the topic of tariffs.   I have been highly supportive, but there is becoming more and more whispers that you will truly rely on tariffs on the long run.  No better way to kill your consensus within your own supporters than to take this concept to full frontal trade war status.  Very astute people like Musk, Home Depot's CEO, plus  9 conservative Senators on Hannity last night, .....ALL believe that this is a good tactic to level the playing field. Get a consensus of  zero tariffs, then punish the ones who want to continue what you are aptly calling "The cheat".  I agree with them 100%.  Don't let nutjobs lke Navarro talk you into some kind of early industrial era archaic Smootsville. like system.   We do not have the manufacturing base, nor will we be able in time to have one before painting ourselves into eco-isolationist hell.

He really needs to delegate this to someone who knows that they're doing IMO.

[catfish1957]

He really needs to delegate this to someone who knows that they're doing IMO.

Last few soundbites from POTUS are kind of alarming.  If we see the likes of Japan, SK, and EU walkaway without agreements, this is going to get ugly, quickly.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Last few soundbites from POTUS are kind of alarming.  If we see the likes of Japan, SK, and EU walkaway without agreements, this is going to get ugly, quickly.

Current trajectory is not good IMO.

[catfish1957]

Interesting graphic...

[catfish1957]

AT open.....

DOW Down 237
NASDAQ Up 43

Oil- $57.57/bbl

Gold- $3092/oz.  (see my previous comments on metals)

[catfish1957]

Take it for whatever its worth, but G-S has a floor prediction for WTI on $55/bbl 2025, $51/bbl in 2026.

[cato potatoe]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/european-union-approves-first-set-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-us-imports.html

The EU applies a 25% tariff on a range of American products beginning April 15, and a broader levy on May 15th.  Details coming soon.

[Wingnut]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/european-union-approves-first-set-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-us-imports.html

The EU applies a 25% tariff on a range of American products beginning April 15, and a broader levy on May 15th.  Details coming soon.

Yeah.  Lets see how that works out for them in the long haul.

[catfish1957]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/european-union-approves-first-set-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-us-imports.html

The EU applies a 25% tariff on a range of American products beginning April 15, and a broader levy on May 15th.  Details coming soon.

The delayed phased appraoch , implies a desire to negotiate.   I am optimistic, based on some of the individual country comments.

The Chicoms are the only ones engaging in trade warfare.

[catfish1957]

Bartiromo did a nice job last night.  Pretty much sums up my POV too.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZwtbc6w7gQ

[catfish1957]

Surprised to see that 3-4% correction in Europe markets has held during the day, while we have recouped to neutral market today.   Likely due to announced proposed but delayed retaliation 25% tariffs.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Last few soundbites from POTUS are kind of alarming. 

What soundbites are those @catfish1957

[Right_in_Virginia]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/european-union-approves-first-set-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-us-imports.html

The EU applies a 25% tariff on a range of American products beginning April 15, and a broader levy on May 15th.  Details coming soon.

  The US reduces military aid by 25%, including NATO and weaponry, beginning Apr 15, and a deeper reduction on May 15.  Details coming soon.

[catfish1957]

What soundbitez are those @catfish1957

(1) Trending toward hard line negotiations, rather than toward optimistic cooperation.  Tone in general.  Understand that to keep this coalition of conservatives together......   we need to see some wins during market turmoil. If we don't I fear defections.
(2) (More from surrogates) More of the using tariffs as a long term strategy of funding government rather than trying toward working more toward equitable trade.  I had hoped this was rhetoric for placeholder than iron clad intent.

Bartiromo kind of echos these sentiments.

[Right_in_Virginia]

(1) Trending toward hard line negotiations, rather than toward optimistic cooperation.  Tone in general.  Understand that to keep this coalition of conservatives together......   we need to see some wins during market turmoil. If we don't I fear defections.
(2) (More from surrogates) More of the using tariffs as a long term strategy of funding government rather than trying toward working more toward equitable trade. 

I need to hear what has you upset.  Thanks.

[catfish1957]

I need to hear what has you upset.  Thanks.

Or what he hasn't said?   There are plenty of things around  (1) cooperation with those nations who want to deal ,(2) rushing or processing negotiations to completion as priority, and (3) taking tariffs to zero, than being hard line.   These markets need calming, and he isn't exactly helping.  I support POTUS, but many of us, including GOP lawmakers, won't be patient forever.  If we are at this exact point in a week, he is going to start seeing support slip.  Just saying tariffs are "Beautiful" just doesn't cut it.

I am not being contrarian....  just practical, because seeing  1000's of points of swing daily in the market is not confidence building in the state of our econmy.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Or what he hasn't said?   ....   Just saying tariffs are "Beautiful" just doesn't cut it.

The President has said waaay more than "beautiful".    

I think the difference right now between us is I'm focused on what Trump actually says followed by Hassett.  Everyone else right now is white noise ---- playing a public guessing game ---- and IMO, nothing good ever comes from this. 
 

I am not be contrarian....  just practical, because seeing  1000's of points of swing daily in the market is not confidence building in the state of our econmy.

Understood.   

[catfish1957]

One positive DJT Tweet...

and.....  boom

DOW up 7%

NASDAQ up 10%

Whiplash city!!!!!

[Stevensr123]

Donald Trump has 100% manipulated the stock market so that his wealthy donors can make more money. That is what we are seeing now

[oldno7]

Donald Trump has 100% manipulated the stock market so that his wealthy donors can make more money. That is what we are seeing now

 If thats your opinion, you're an idiot.

Trump just played China like a fine tuned piano.

He got them into a % tariff war.

Once it got high enough--125%, he had 70+ countries in line to make trade agreements.

He agreed to set those Countries tariff to 10% for 90 days while deals are struck and kept China at 125%.

Do not deal against Trump.

Now wheres our 4 shiffs to come in and complain about Trump?

[Stevensr123]

If thats your opinion, you're an idiot.

Trump just played China like a fine tuned piano.

He got them into a % tariff war.

Once it got high enough--125%, he had 70+ countries in line to make trade agreements.

He agreed to set those Countries tariff to 10% for 90 days while deals are struck and kept China at 125%.

Do not deal against Trump.

Now wheres our 4 shiffs to come in and complain about Trump?

You do realise that it’s American consumers who will ultimately bear the cost of these tariffs, right?

The economic reality is that tariffs are taxes on imports—costs that are typically passed down the supply chain and felt most by everyday citizens through higher prices on goods and services.

In the long term, actions like these erode trust. Countries may still sign deals in the short term, but make no mistake: many will begin actively decoupling from the U.S. because it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see America as a reliable or stable trade partner.

America’s ability to sustain $35 trillion in debt has largely been underpinned by its reputation as a safe, stable place to hold reserves—thanks in part to a strong commitment to free market principles. But when policy decisions start to look impulsive or erratic, that trust begins to unravel.

Yes, nations will continue to engage with the U.S. where they must—but behind the scenes, they’ll start redirecting investment into their own domestic resilience and toward alliances they see as more predictable.

This isn’t just about short-term trade dynamics. It’s about long-term strategic repositioning in a world that’s watching closely.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Trump just played China like a fine tuned piano.

He got them into a % tariff war.

Once it got high enough--125%, he had 70+ countries in line to make trade agreements.

He agreed to set those Countries tariff to 10% for 90 days while deals are struck and kept China at 125%.

Do not deal against Trump.

Now wheres our 4 shiffs to come in and complain about Trump?

Excellent post!

[Right_in_Virginia]

[oldno7]

You do realise that it’s American consumers who will ultimately bear the cost of these tariffs, right?

The economic reality is that tariffs are taxes on imports—costs that are typically passed down the supply chain and felt most by everyday citizens through higher prices on goods and services.

In the long term, actions like these erode trust. Countries may still sign deals in the short term, but make no mistake: many will begin actively decoupling from the U.S. because it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see America as a reliable or stable trade partner.

America’s ability to sustain $35 trillion in debt has largely been underpinned by its reputation as a safe, stable place to hold reserves—thanks in part to a strong commitment to free market principles. But when policy decisions start to look impulsive or erratic, that trust begins to unravel.

Yes, nations will continue to engage with the U.S. where they must—but behind the scenes, they’ll start redirecting investment into their own domestic resilience and toward alliances they see as more predictable.

This isn’t just about short-term trade dynamics. It’s about long-term strategic repositioning in a world that’s watching closely.

 This is the only part you got right.
There certainly will be long term repositioning and China won't have a say.(unless war)
Nations cannot redirect investments to other Countries--NO COUNTRY has an economy like ours.
This is erasing 70 years of injustice to US trade, in the long term(although the thought eludes you), USA and all it's trade partners will grow substantially and those trade partners will not look like those of recent decades of abuse.
Yes--strategic repositioning indeed, jump on board or drown.

[Stevensr123]

This is the only part you got right.
There certainly will be long term repositioning and China won't have a say.(unless war)
Nations cannot redirect investments to other Countries--NO COUNTRY has an economy like ours.
This is erasing 70 years of injustice to US trade, in the long term(although the thought eludes you), USA and all it's trade partners will grow substantially and those trade partners will not look like those of recent decades of abuse.
Yes--strategic repositioning indeed, jump on board or drown.

you have contradicted yourself massively here “no country has an economy like ours” -  a “huge injustice has occurred ”.

You have an economy like yours BECAUSE of free market principles, not isolationism. The world and business saw America has the free market economy that underpinned those principles

The world will now start  trading more with others, investing more in themselves and others, allies are going to reduce spending in American military equipment and partner with reliable allies.

Trump is the best thing to happen to china and Europe in the long term.

[DefiantMassRINO]

You can have free fair trade with nations that allow for private capital acivity.

You cannot have fair trade with Government-owned and Government-run economies because they will sell products for less than cost to gain market-share internationally while decimating foreign competitors and industries.

You cannot have fair trade with nations that do not allow for private ownership of intellectual property, and do not enforce copyrights and trademarks.

You cannot have fair trade with a totalitarian communist regime that has weaponized unfair trade practices to steal intellectual property, business practices, and technology to further imperial military ambitions.

There is no such thing as a Chi-com consumer.  Everyone and everything is the property of the state and the Chinese Communist Party.

The myth of "selling to Chinese consumers" and cheap laobor are the lures of the Chinese Communist Party's trap for Western nations, Governments, economies, industries, and companies.

[oldno7]

you have contradicted yourself massively here “no country has an economy like ours” -  a “huge injustice has occurred ”.

You have an economy like yours BECAUSE of free market principles, not isolationism. The world and business saw America has the free market economy that underpinned those principles

The world will now start  trading more with others, investing more in themselves and others, allies are going to reduce spending in American military equipment and partner with reliable allies.

Trump is the best thing to happen to china and Europe in the long term.

 Both things are indeed true.
We would not be 37 trillion in debt if we had a free/fair trade market that the US was on an equal tariff playing field with the world.
That changed--TODAY!

With NEW free trading partners, the National debt has a very good opportunity to be reduced, if not eliminated in a few years.

China will wither up and die--they have signed their own death certificate.

[catfish1957]

3000 point DOW  gain.  Just another day in the USA.

 

Watching and parsing trends in this environment for punditry sucks,   This isn't an econmy......  it's a f__king circus.

[Bigun]

If thats your opinion, you're an idiot.

Trump just played China like a fine tuned piano.

He got them into a % tariff war.

Once it got high enough--125%, he had 70+ countries in line to make trade agreements.

He agreed to set those Countries tariff to 10% for 90 days while deals are struck and kept China at 125%.

Do not deal against Trump.

Now wheres our 4 shiffs to come in and complain about Trump?

 

[Bigun]

Both things are indeed true.
We would not be 37 trillion in debt if we had a free/fair trade market that the US was on an equal tariff playing field with the world.
That changed--TODAY!

With NEW free trading partners, the National debt has a very good opportunity to be reduced, if not eliminated in a few years.

China will wither up and die--they have signed their own death certificate.

Great post! @oldno7  The only thing we need now is to throw the Communist inspired income tax onto the ash heap of history!

[cato potatoe]

3000 point DOW  gain.  Just another day in the USA.

 

Watching and parsing trends in this environment for punditry sucks,   This isn't an econmy......  it's a f__king circus.

Good thing I moved out of cash (partly) on Monday.  Now I wonder if I should liquidate again.     Equities are still too expensive. 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Haha well i have friend on facebook Like "market tanked again thanks to trump", of course there's silence when it goes up.

[WhatWouldReaganDo]

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/career-map/sell-side/capital-markets/market-manipulation/