A Trump Recession?

[mystery-ak]

A Trump Recession?
March 24, 2025 by John Hinderaker

The financial markets have been tanked by the threat of economic damage from President Trump’s tariffs–or that is the narrative, anyway. Democrats are hoping for a full-blown recession, which they are already labeling the “Trump recession.” But perhaps stocks have mostly pulled back a little from high valuations, as happens all the time.

As of today, the Dow is down 3.3% from January 20, when Trump was inaugurated. The S&P is down 4.6%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ, whose companies are least likely to be affected by tariffs, but whose prices were generally considered to be most over-valued a few months ago, is down 7.9%. Not exactly Black Tuesday territory, and the markets are currently rising.

Financial markets are volatile, but what about the underlying economic realities of Trump’s policies? We are seeing lots of news stories like this one: “Hyundai to Invest $21 Billion in U.S. in Bid to Avoid Trump’s Tariffs.” And this one: “Rolls-Royce explores shifting engine-making to US to counter Trump tariffs.” There have been many more such stories in recent days.

more
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/03/a-trump-recession.php

[libertybele]

IMHO we've been heading towards a recession or at least a major correction.  A recession to me isn't unexpected.  They've just got to find a way to keep it from happening until after the mid terms. 

[DefiantMassRINO]

I'm more worried about gold over $3,000 / oz.  To me, that signals a lack of faith in other asset classes, other stores of wealth, and governments.

Gold is Bitcoin for grandpa's, governments, and institutions.

Investors or speculators would rather park their wealth in a slab of metal that does not produce dividends or interest than invest it in bonds and stocks.  That hints at more of a desire for return of investment versus return on investment.

[jafo2010]

We are long overdue for a decline in the market.  I anticipate it going down, but the good news is that it will not stay down for a prolonged period.  It will rebound. 

All of you are giddy with what Trump is doing.  But the market does not respond well to instability, and that is exactly what Trump has done.  I fully support his effort to ID waste, fraud and abuse.  And I support reducing the federal workforce.  But the approach is the worst way to go.  And it will result in the worst long term outcome.  There is a way to reduce the workforce without lawsuits, without drama, and they are doing it wrong.

I expect the market could collapse to 30,000 or so.  Billionaires are pulling their money out of the market.  Warren Buffett is sitting on the largest cash position he has ever had.  He is not doing that because he thinks the market is stable. 

And they keep saying egg prices are down on TV.  I do not see that in the stores.  They are up, not down.  There is nothing we buy that I see prices falling.  Even gasoline is largely remaining high.  Yes, there are a few stations with lowered gas prices, but they are few.  Most are keeping their prices where they have been.

No interest rate reductions.  I expected that.  Talking heads on TV are saying 2 or 3 interest rate cuts this year.  I just do not see it.  Inflation is still running strong.  Don't hold your breath for interest rate cuts.  And that will also drive the market down, and we will head into a stagflation period.  I just do not see a way around it.  It is coming, but again, it will not last long.  Months to a year.  It takes time for some of the things Trump is attempting to do to impact the economy.