How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather
Timo Kelder, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisette Klok, Vikki Thompson, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Ed Hawkins, Louise J. Slater, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Robert L. Wilby, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Stephen Burt, Bart van den Hurk, Hylke de Vries, Karin van der Wiel, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Antonio Carmona Baéz, Ellen van Bueren & Erich M. Fischer
Nature Communications volume 16, Article number: 2382 (2025) Cite this article
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Abstract
We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.
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Introduction
There are different gradients of extreme weather - from the average hot day to the record-breaking heatwave, from the annual springtime flood to the unprecedented dam breach, from an average tropical cyclone to one occurring after the season is meant to be over. For example, in September 2017, Hurricanes Irma and Maria damaged approximately 95% of the buildings and forced thousands of residents to move into public shelters on the island of Sint Maarten/Saint Martin1. In neighbouring Puerto Rico, the same hurricanes accounted for more than 4600 deaths, mostly in connection with poor public health infrastructure and essential public services2. In 2020, the Horn of Africa recorded its fifth consecutive failed rainy season, with poor pasture conditions, livestock losses, decreased surface water availability and human conflicts, leaving 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian assistance3. In October 2021, severe floods in southwestern Nepal were unprecedented because they occurred outside of the usual monsoon season, catching warning systems off guard and disrupting agricultural activities, causing over 120 deaths and the displacement of over 4790 families4. In July 2021, the Pacific Northwest of North America saw temperatures soar above 45 °C, shattering records for the region. Lytton, BC, Canada, experienced an especially severe spike, with temperatures reaching 49.6 °C, 5.2 °C higher than the previous record set in 1941 from observations dating back to 1917. This event strained the healthcare systems and resulted in over 850 deaths5. All these events were unprecedented in different ways but had devastating impacts6.
It is common to encounter media narratives emphasising the surprise caused by unprecedented weather. Corresponding gaps in disaster preparedness systems and adaptation actions leave communities underprepared and unequipped to handle “surprising” weather events6,7. However, advances in climate science of various kinds are rapidly increasing our understanding of current and future risks of unprecedented weather, and can be used to reduce their impacts by informing disaster management and climate adaptation practices.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-57450-0
