Consumer Expectations Show Record Partisan Split As Democrats Panic Over Trump EconomyJohn Carney 14 Mar 2025
Consumer sentiment fell sharply in March, with Democrats’ expectations for the economy hitting an all-time low, according to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey, highlighting an unprecedented partisan divide in economic outlook.
The survey’s headline index dropped to 57.9, down from 64.7 in February, reaching its lowest level since November 2022. While sentiment declined across income levels and age groups, Democrats saw the sharpest deterioration, with their expectations index plunging to 28.2—a level lower than during the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, or Donald Trump’s first term.
By contrast, Republican expectations remained high at 95.7, marking a 67.5-point gap—the largest partisan divide ever recorded in the survey. Independent voters saw expectations decline to 51.8, putting them closer to Democrats than Republicans for the first time in years.
Democratic Sentiment at Historic LowAt 28.2, the expectations index for Democrats is at its lowest level ever recorded, surpassing prior lows seen during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2016 election of Donald Trump, and the depths of the pandemic recession in 2020.
Historically, consumer expectations tend to track with partisan control of the White House. Republican confidence surged after Trump’s 2016 election, just as Democratic sentiment spiked after Biden’s 2020 victory. However, the current 67.5-point gap far exceeds even the 64.6-point divide in early 2017, when Republican confidence soared following Trump’s first inauguration.
The findings underscore the dramatic contrast in economic perceptions under President Trump’s second term. Republicans remain broadly optimistic, reflecting expectations of lower taxes, deregulation, and business-friendly policies. Democrats, in contrast, have grown increasingly pessimistic, citing inflation, trade policy, and broader economic uncertainty.
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