Election Forecaster That ‘Predicted’ Kamala Victory Closes Down
Published 4 hours ago
on March 6, 2025
By Chris Powell
The political forecasting site FiveThirtyEight, best known for its election predictions and statistical analysis, is shutting down as part of sweeping layoffs at ABC News and Disney Entertainment Networks. The decision, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, comes just months after the site projected a narrow victory for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election—an outcome that ultimately did not materialize.
According to sources familiar with the matter, approximately 200 employees across Disney’s ABC News Group and Disney Entertainment Networks division are losing their jobs. The cuts amount to nearly 6% of the total workforce across both units.
FiveThirtyEight, founded by statistician Nate Silver in 2008, gained prominence for its data-driven approach to political forecasting. However, its recent election modeling, which predicted a dead heat between Harris and Donald Trump, had drawn skepticism from conservative critics. The site’s projections had Harris winning 50 out of 100 simulations, while Trump secured 49—only for the actual election results to deliver a decisive victory for the Republican.
The shuttering of FiveThirtyEight reflects larger upheavals within media companies struggling to remain profitable in an era of declining ad revenue and shifting audience preferences. ABC News, which acquired FiveThirtyEight in 2018, had already made significant staffing reductions last year. The latest round of layoffs suggests deeper financial strains within Disney’s news operations.
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