When a Forecast Flops: Post-Hoc Rationalization in Climate Science
15 hours ago Charles Rotter 44 Comments
I have written up Michael E. Mann’s forecast flop previously.
But only today did I become aware of his own post-mortem analysis. Mann’s reflection on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season provides a fascinating case study in how climate forecasts go astray—and how their authors work to reframe misses as meaningful contributions. While the piece starts by heralding an “active, destructive, and deadly” hurricane season, its true focus is a far less successful story: the failure of Mann’s own predictions to match reality.
The Setup: Bold Forecasts, But a Lackluster Outcome
Mann opens with dramatic language about “unprecedented” hurricanes and their links to warming oceans. His piece asserts that human-caused warming is driving stronger storms, citing rapid intensification in specific cases like Hurricane Milton (which reached 185 mph winds) and even speculating about the need for a hypothetical “Category 6” classification.
Indeed Milton nearly breached the threshold of 192 mph sustained winds argued by one recent study to constitute a whole new “category six” caliber of hurricanes that has emerged in an era of unprecedented ocean warmth. A separate study estimated that the deadly flooding in the southeastern U.S. from hurricane Helene was increased by 50% by human-caused warming.
https://michaelmann.net/content/reflections-2024-atlantic-hurricane-seasonhttps://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/01/27/when-a-forecast-flops-post-hoc-rationalization-in-climate-science/
