2024: The Year of Bad Science
January 1st, 2025 by KlimaNachrichten Editor
Perhaps between 2030 and 2040 we will think back to the happy 2020s. Namely, if the cost estimate of the Fraunhofer Institute in Freiburg should become reality. A study from Freiburg is currently being discussed on social media. The billions already spent seem downright ridiculous compared to the future costs.
The researchers estimate the annual costs of the transition on page 79 of their study as follows:
The costs of the transformation compared to the continuation of today's
systems in the "technology-open" scenario amount to an average of the next
25 years to around €52 billion per year. This corresponds to around 1.2% of today's
Gross domestic product.
• In the years 2030 to 2040, the highest amounts of around €250 billion per year will be
investments in the transformation of the energy system and the necessary
Infrastructure needed.
• By reducing demand in the "efficiency" scenario, the total costs of the
energy system by €630 billion by 2045 compared to the scenario
"open to technology".
• Persistent behavior leads to a similar cost increase as the construction
a robust energy system that is more resilient to geopolitical influences
and climate change.
• In the "technology-open" scenario, there are average
CO2 avoidance costs of just under €220 per tonne of CO2, in the "efficiency" scenario
just under €90 per tonne of CO2 and €320 in the "persistence" scenario.
https://klimanachrichten.de/2025/01/01/2024-das-jahr-der-schlechten-wissenschaft/
