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Offline rangerrebew

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Prediction is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future
« on: December 31, 2024, 09:06:22 am »
Prediction is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future
Grades are in for the 2024 THB Home Office Pool

Roger Pielke Jr.
Dec 26, 2024

 
Nothing is more humbling predicting the future and then evaluating how things turned out. Today I take a look back at last year’s 2024 THB Home Office Pool which asked for prognostications for how 2024 might turn out across an eclectic set of 10 questions.

I share my grades below — 4.5 points out of possible 10, with one point resulting from a bad question on the exam (it happens!). Many of my misses were big misses. How did you do? Let me know in the comments.

Next week I’ll be posting the 2025 THB Home Office Pool — I invite your suggestions for questions to include (as well as pointers o the data to be used to evaluate responses, one year from now).

A lot of my work across my career has involved studying predictions — how we make them, how we use them, how we evaluate them. Some of my favorites from the archives:

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/prediction-is-very-difficult-especially
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The unity of government which constitutes you one people is also now dear to you. It is justly so, for it is a main pillar in the edifice of your real independence, the support of your tranquility at home, your peace abroad; of your safety; of your prosperity; of that very liberty which you so highly prize. But as it is easy to foresee that, from different causes and from different quarters, much pains will be taken, many artifices employed to weaken in your minds the conviction of this truth.  George Washington - Farewell Address
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