Stealth and Scale: Quality, Quantity, and Modern Military Power
Michael Horowitz and Joshua Schwartz
December 18, 2024
From strikes by uncrewed aerial systems launching precision Hellfire missiles in Afghanistan and Iraq to U.S. Navy ships firing missiles against Houthi targets in the Middle East over the last few years, the United States has led the world in precision strike capabilities for decades. For more than a generation, the United States maintained a healthy lead in the most sophisticated military technologies, especially those that enabled precision strike, and its large advantage arguably deterred many potential rivals from symmetric competition. With the focus on precision, given the accuracy benefits and larger costs of systems, came a decision to prioritize quality over quantity in military capabilities. However, technological change over the last decade has eroded the binary between scale and sophistication. It has also accelerated the proliferation of key elements of the precision strike complex. Even relatively weak actors, such as Iran and militant groups like the Houthis in Yemen, can acquire and even produce these capabilities. For example, the Houthis use Iranian technology like the Shahed-136 one-way precision attack system — and derivatives they produce themselves — to attack shipping in the Red Sea, generating billions of dollars in costs to commercial shipping companies and the U.S. Navy. This is to say nothing of more capable rivals like the People’s Republic of China, which can deliver advanced weapons and platforms on par with the United States in many areas.
The global proliferation of precision strike means we now live in an era of “precise mass,” where comparatively cheap uncrewed systems — that can be deployed at scale — are also highly advanced and deadly accurate. The proliferation of low-cost precise mass means that the United States can no longer comfortably rely upon the edge in precision strike it cultivated over decades. Moreover, the cost-exchange ratio of competing solely with exquisite, expensive systems is likely to lead to failure over time, especially as lower-cost alternatives become more capable and manufacturing lead times for more exquisite systems grow (like in the case of the F-35). These dynamics suggest a strong logic for the United States and others in pursuing a mix of capabilities, emphasizing mass at the lower end and stealthy capabilities at the higher end that can survive in this era of warfare.
https://warontherocks.com/2024/12/stealth-and-scale-quality-quantity-and-modern-military-power/
