Author Topic: Wind and Solar Are Fragile  (Read 1876 times)

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Online rangerrebew

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Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« on: December 03, 2024, 06:29:20 am »
Wind and Solar Are Fragile
By Steve Goreham -- December 2, 2024

“As a result of hail and other weather damage, insurance premiums for solar facilities are skyrocketing, in some cases up by as much as 400%. In addition, policy coverage is being capped at as little as $10-15 million, requiring system developers to obtain multiple policies to try to cover their projects.”

Wind and solar have been growing as a share of US electrical power generation over the last two decades. State and federal mandates and subsidies have driven the expansion of renewables because of their inherently dilute and intermittent nature. But it’s clear that renewable electricity sources have a third strike: they are fragile and prone to weather damage and destruction.


Twenty-three states now mandate Net Zero electricity by as early as 2035. Their aim is to replace coal- and gas-fired power plants with wind and solar generators. Wind and solar have grown from near zero in 2000 to 14.1% of US electricity generation in 2023 (10.2% wind and 3.9% solar).

Weather Risk

Wind and solar systems are located on ridge lines, on plains, and offshore, and are exposed to weather forces that usually don’t affect building-housed coal and gas generators. In addition, these systems require about 100 times the land area of traditional generators to deliver the same average electricity output, increasing the chances of storm damage. Damage incidents are rising as more and more systems are deployed.

https://www.masterresource.org/goreham-steve/wind-solar-fragile/
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Online Smokin Joe

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2024, 06:48:26 am »
But...but...the theory worked just fine...in theory.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2024, 01:21:23 pm »
But...but...the theory worked just fine...in theory.
I counter by saying the theory was never correct as the wind don't always blow and the sun don't always shine, yet we need power 24/7
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Online Smokin Joe

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2024, 07:24:30 pm »
I counter by saying the theory was never correct as the wind don't always blow and the sun don't always shine, yet we need power 24/7
Well, I was referring to the fantasy land bubble that the prevailing theories come out of. PhDs with no practical experience, who might be able to design a car, but can't change the oil in one...those folks.

I fully agree the theory was never correct. I will add that electric vehicles, from mining, construction, and their eventual demise will prove more damaging to the environment than ICEs which are largely recycled at the end of their service life, if not refurbished or restored and kept in service.

No device with a 20 year lifespan is 'renewable', imho. Like one of those record clubs back when, it looked good going in, but the long term effect wasn't so great.

About the only real 'renewable' energy out there is hydropower. Nature fills the reservoir, the water runs through, to evaporate somewhere and rain down again. :shrug:

The problem with theory is that it seldom takes into account every facet of the problem.
Not long before the Nantucket windmill fragmentation washed up, I commented about the next nor'easter or hurricane destroying the windmills offshore. It never even got that nasty out before one failed.

Solar and wind facilities are seeing insurance rates skyrocket because of severe weather events causing serious damage. And then there is the disposal problem...not thought through even now.

All of this was foreseeable, but those pimping the 'renewable' concept did not consider these practical aspects of the real world, they were lost in their theories.

Which never led them to the simple question of:

Just because we can, should we?

« Last Edit: December 03, 2024, 07:30:16 pm by Smokin Joe »
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2024, 02:04:48 pm »
Well, I was referring to the fantasy land bubble that the prevailing theories come out of. PhDs with no practical experience, who might be able to design a car, but can't change the oil in one...those folks.

I fully agree the theory was never correct. I will add that electric vehicles, from mining, construction, and their eventual demise will prove more damaging to the environment than ICEs which are largely recycled at the end of their service life, if not refurbished or restored and kept in service.

No device with a 20 year lifespan is 'renewable', imho. Like one of those record clubs back when, it looked good going in, but the long term effect wasn't so great.

About the only real 'renewable' energy out there is hydropower. Nature fills the reservoir, the water runs through, to evaporate somewhere and rain down again. :shrug:

The problem with theory is that it seldom takes into account every facet of the problem.
Not long before the Nantucket windmill fragmentation washed up, I commented about the next nor'easter or hurricane destroying the windmills offshore. It never even got that nasty out before one failed.

Solar and wind facilities are seeing insurance rates skyrocket because of severe weather events causing serious damage. And then there is the disposal problem...not thought through even now.

All of this was foreseeable, but those pimping the 'renewable' concept did not consider these practical aspects of the real world, they were lost in their theories.

Which never led them to the simple question of:

Just because we can, should we?
I agree with you, but I'll also offer that another renewable energy mechanism that works is geothermal.  It has the same mechanism as hydro as the dynamic is water heated up to steam by the earth, which is recharged by rainfall.

Am emphasizing geothermal as I believe the potential exists for a great expansion of using differential temperatures to generate electricity even if steam is not present such as in Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion.

What is Ocean Thermal Energy?
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) harnesses the temperature differential between warm ocean water at the surface and cold sub-surface at depth to operate a heat engine which can perform mechanical work, such as spinning a generator to produce electricity. OTEC operates in a similar way to your home air conditioning in reverse.

https://theliquidgrid.com/marine-clean-tech-briefs/ocean-thermal-energy-conversion/
« Last Edit: December 04, 2024, 02:07:32 pm by IsailedawayfromFR »
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Online roamer_1

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2024, 05:32:46 pm »
But...but...the theory worked just fine...in theory.

This is where I got stuck. The investment in solar is substantial, and them solar panels are spendy.

I don't mind the intermittent nature of solar generation, and I am a fan of it - at a very localized level. That is, at the end user. I don't think that massive solar is real or doable, at least until there is capable storage - And transmission losses pretty much tell the story. Can't be done effectively.

It CAN be done at the end user, mainly because you can end-run the transmission problem, and because capable storage is real and exists at that level.

BUT, even at that, fifteen hundred bucks in solar panels can get rubbed out by any given strong storm, and that hit will wreck you if it happens...

That's where I got stuck. Protecting the investment. And it ain't worth doing until that problem is overcome.

Online Smokin Joe

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2024, 06:13:04 am »
I agree with you, but I'll also offer that another renewable energy mechanism that works is geothermal.  It has the same mechanism as hydro as the dynamic is water heated up to steam by the earth, which is recharged by rainfall.

Am emphasizing geothermal as I believe the potential exists for a great expansion of using differential temperatures to generate electricity even if steam is not present such as in Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion.

What is Ocean Thermal Energy?
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) harnesses the temperature differential between warm ocean water at the surface and cold sub-surface at depth to operate a heat engine which can perform mechanical work, such as spinning a generator to produce electricity. OTEC operates in a similar way to your home air conditioning in reverse.

https://theliquidgrid.com/marine-clean-tech-briefs/ocean-thermal-energy-conversion/
An interesting concept, and likely quite workable in places like Hawaii with deep water close offshore, and warm water close in, too.

Unfortunately, here, <200 miles from the geographic center of the North American Continent (over in Rugby, ND--or Robinson--or Center), depending on who did the calculating), that isn't going to happen. But no one size or style fits all.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Online roamer_1

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2024, 07:27:32 pm »
I agree with you, but I'll also offer that another renewable energy mechanism that works is geothermal.  It has the same mechanism as hydro as the dynamic is water heated up to steam by the earth, which is recharged by rainfall.


The problem with  geothermal is invariably calcification, which always seems to be present, and is damn hard on the hardware... Spokane WA has some pretty big geothermal systems, and they are nothing but trouble  :shrug:

Hydro is by far the best natural system, though perhaps our use of the method needs some jiggering.

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2024, 10:05:53 pm »
An interesting concept, and likely quite workable in places like Hawaii with deep water close offshore, and warm water close in, too.

Unfortunately, here, <200 miles from the geographic center of the North American Continent (over in Rugby, ND--or Robinson--or Center), depending on who did the calculating), that isn't going to happen. But no one size or style fits all.
g
Yes, geothermal is site specific.  It proliferates in cold places like Iceland.

I also have been at geothermal sites near the equator in Indonesia 40 years ago where we drilled wells and built a geothermal plant that remains operational.

Its mail issues are the buildup of minerals which are produced along with the steam, which is similar to the way most oil and gas is produced.  These need disposal and the correct treatment of piping and equipment from scale.

The thermal differential power system should be able to function anywhere in almost a perpetual system mode.  Obviously the scale of differential temperatures weigh heavily on the efficiency.

BTW, my son in northern Nebraska has a geothermal system running in his house and yard which is a simple heat transfer with shallow underground wells which supplies him air conditioning during the hot Nebraska summers at fairly low temperatures differentials.
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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2024, 01:10:04 am »
Every investment is a positive value proposition when you ignore costs.

The Greens never fully accounted for the complete life-cycle costs of inputs, maintenance, depreciation, decommissioning, and disposal.

They only completed part of the equation, and they miscalculated the part of the equation they did.
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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2024, 08:21:33 am »
Yes, geothermal is site specific.  It proliferates in cold places like Iceland.

I also have been at geothermal sites near the equator in Indonesia 40 years ago where we drilled wells and built a geothermal plant that remains operational.

Its mail issues are the buildup of minerals which are produced along with the steam, which is similar to the way most oil and gas is produced.  These need disposal and the correct treatment of piping and equipment from scale.

The thermal differential power system should be able to function anywhere in almost a perpetual system mode.  Obviously the scale of differential temperatures weigh heavily on the efficiency.

BTW, my son in northern Nebraska has a geothermal system running in his house and yard which is a simple heat transfer with shallow underground wells which supplies him air conditioning during the hot Nebraska summers at fairly low temperatures differentials.
Iceland is smack over the spreading zone in the Mid Atlantic Ridge.
It's volcanic in origin, and the temperature differential would be profound at the equator as much as nearer the pole.

Many steam generating geothermal plants are in areas of high heat flow, for instance the Pacific Northwest (Cascade Range) is a string of volcanoes over the subducted East Pacific Rise (The tectonic equivalent of the mid Atlantic ridge). Indonesia is noted for volcanic activity also.

You can find areas of high heat flow along the Rockies, and into the Basin and Range of Nevada, with hot springs and geologically recent volcanics, and then there is the Yellowstone hot spot.  All have some potential for steam generating geothermal that could produce electricity.

For that matter, drill deep enough anywhere and tap into heat coming from the Mantle. The question is one of cost-benefit analysis and finding the thinner crust (Here, about 20 KM). That might be a problem, though, as drilling over 60,000 ft. vertically has yet to be done by anyone on the planet. Even reaching depths with bottom hole temperatures significant enough to generate superheated steam is unlikely away from areas of known and relatively recent volcanic activity.

Ground loop or well based heat transfer systems will work most anywhere there is enough soil to install them, but they aren't generating electricity, and are not producing steam from hotspots or working with the temperature differential between the photic zone and 9000 ft. of water.
Whole different deals.

All they do is heat/cool fluid to roughly 58 degrees F and that fluid is pumped through a heat exchanger to produce air closer to the desired temperature for indoor living, summer or winter. They can be effective, especially for decreasing the cost of heating or cooling large spaces, where the savings exceed the cost of equipment and setup.  It is an economy of scale, though, and more difficult to make work economically on a small scale.

Back to tapping mantle heat flow, little is more corrosive than superheated steam in an open hole environment, and it will leach virtually anything available out of the surrounding rock and deposit on the way to cooler environs, be those still downhole or in the machinery above. Temperature drops, precipitation occurs. (Something similar happens in oil wells with paraffin accumulation, salt deposition, and other mineral deposits).

If steam is to be generated in such environs, it's going to take a closed (cased) loop to keep mineralization from occurring and causing the same sort of problems current systems have (for electrical generation). A closed loop system will also prevent fault lubrication like occurred in the Black Rock Desert, with ensuing seismicity causing the project to be curtailed.

Parallel wells with a directional frac have been suggested, one down, one up, and communication between through the fractures, picking up heat along the way, but that has all the mineralization problems of open hole systems with the complexity of getting the wells and fracs to behave as desired. The holes will still have to be cased for most of their length, or there is a serious probability of contamination of porous formations on the way up or down. What comes to the surface will have a dissolved mineral load, and may not be suitable for another round without being treated.

This is where I get into "Theory works fine, in theory".
All of this is more complicated than the power point slides show.

Can it be done? Yes, of course, and in some places it is being done, but in many of those places alternatives such as coal are lacking, and oil is used for other things besides generating large scale electricity.

I'm all for it where it works.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2024, 08:48:17 am by Smokin Joe »
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2024, 09:16:30 am »
Iceland is smack over the spreading zone in the Mid Atlantic Ridge.
It's volcanic in origin, and the temperature differential would be profound at the equator as much as nearer the pole.

Many steam generating geothermal plants are in areas of high heat flow, for instance the Pacific Northwest (Cascade Range) is a string of volcanoes over the subducted East Pacific Rise (The tectonic equivalent of the mid Atlantic ridge). Indonesia is noted for volcanic activity also.

You can find areas of high heat flow along the Rockies, and into the Basin and Range of Nevada, with hot springs and geologically recent volcanics, and then there is the Yellowstone hot spot.  All have some potential for steam generating geothermal that could produce electricity.

For that matter, drill deep enough anywhere and tap into heat coming from the Mantle. The question is one of cost-benefit analysis and finding the thinner crust (Here, about 20 KM). That might be a problem, though, as drilling over 60,000 ft. vertically has yet to be done by anyone on the planet. Even reaching depths with bottom hole temperatures significant enough to generate superheated steam is unlikely away from areas of known and relatively recent volcanic activity.

Ground loop or well based heat transfer systems will work most anywhere there is enough soil to install them, but they aren't generating electricity, and are not producing steam from hotspots or working with the temperature differential between the photic zone and 9000 ft. of water.
Whole different deals.

All they do is heat/cool fluid to roughly 58 degrees F and that fluid is pumped through a heat exchanger to produce air closer to the desired temperature for indoor living, summer or winter. They can be effective, especially for decreasing the cost of heating or cooling large spaces, where the savings exceed the cost of equipment and setup.  It is an economy of scale, though, and more difficult to make work economically on a small scale.

Back to tapping mantle heat flow, little is more corrosive than superheated steam in an open hole environment, and it will leach virtually anything available out of the surrounding rock and deposit on the way to cooler environs, be those still downhole or in the machinery above. Temperature drops, precipitation occurs. (Something similar happens in oil wells with paraffin accumulation, salt deposition, and other mineral deposits).

If steam is to be generated in such environs, it's going to take a closed (cased) loop to keep mineralization from occurring and causing the same sort of problems current systems have (for electrical generation). A closed loop system will also prevent fault lubrication like occurred in the Black Rock Desert, with ensuing seismicity causing the project to be curtailed.

Parallel wells with a directional frac have been suggested, one down, one up, and communication between through the fractures, picking up heat along the way, but that has all the mineralization problems of open hole systems with the complexity of getting the wells and fracs to behave as desired. The holes will still have to be cased for most of their length, or there is a serious probability of contamination of porous formations on the way up or down. What comes to the surface will have a dissolved mineral load, and may not be suitable for another round without being treated.

This is where I get into "Theory works fine, in theory".
All of this is more complicated than the power point slides show.

Can it be done? Yes, of course, and in some places it is being done, but in many of those places alternatives such as coal are lacking, and oil is used for other things besides generating large scale electricity.

I'm all for it where it works.
I fully understand your comments and agree with them regarding the complexity of geothermal and thermal energy.  My brother was for years a geothermal engineer for Chevron in those hot areas in California and Nevada where economic commercial ventures were operating.

I circle back to the original comment you made that the only real renewable energy is hydroelectric.

Hydroelectric is site specific as is these geothermal and thermal energy areas which are also proven commercial renewable power generation systems, in my opinion less so for the thermal energy system being commercially proven.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Wind and Solar Are Fragile
« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2024, 05:08:25 pm »
Here's another potential power generator that is renewable and close to being perpetual, just like tidal harnessing.

Israeli wave energy project draws interest from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and even Iran
Eco Wave Power officially launches grid-connected demonstration model in Jaffa, plans two more for Los Angeles and Taiwan, commercial scale roll-out in Portugal
By Sue Surkes
9 December 2024


An Israeli company, Eco Wave Power, whose pioneering ocean wave energy technology has attracted interest from countries with which Israel currently has no diplomatic relations, including Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, has formally opened its demonstration project at the Jaffa Port with its significant strategic partner, EDF Renewables Israel.

The technology, designed to use existing infrastructure such as breakwaters, piers, and jetties, is mainly onshore or near shore. The only parts in contact with the water are large floaters, which move with the waves, setting in motion pistons and motors that turn electric generators.

This, according to founder and CEO Inna Braverman, sets the company apart from the vast majority of wave energy projects, which have been built out at sea, at a high cost, and with stationary infrastructure exposed to the punishing might of the waves.

“They have struggled to deploy because of the price and survivability,” she said.

President Isaac Herzog attended the Jaffa Port project’s launch, which was delayed for over a year because Braverman and her partners thought a ceremony inappropriate at the height of a war.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-wave-energy-project-draws-interest-from-qatar-saudi-arabia-and-even-iran/
“You will never understand bureaucracies until you understand that for bureaucrats procedure is everything and outcomes are nothing.” Thomas Sowell