How Trump shifted the electoral map and expanded his coalition

[mystery-ak]

How Trump shifted the electoral map and expanded his coalition
By
Elizabeth Stauffer
November 12, 2024 8:00 am
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By all measures, last Tuesday was a stellar night for President-elect Donald Trump. His victory surpassed all expectations. He swept the battleground states: Arizona by 5.6 percentage points, Georgia by 2.2, Michigan by 1.4, Nevada by 3.1, North Carolina by 3.4, Pennsylvania by 2.1, and Wisconsin by 0.9. He even won the popular vote by more than 2 points. The last Republican candidate to do so was then-President George W. Bush in 2004.

Trump predictably dominated in red states, including Florida, where he won by double digits. Likewise, he won Iowa by 13.2 points despite the shock poll from the Des Moines Register’s Ann Selzer that dropped the weekend before the election. Her poll showed that Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of Trump by 3 points in the Hawkeye State. Given Selzer’s long history of accuracy and integrity, the poll caused quite a stir.

Naturally, Democrats pounced on the news. If the poll was accurate, they thought, then maybe Trump was losing in other reliably red states. Why, Harris might even win the election by a landslide.

Their hopes were dashed, and Selzer’s reputation smashed, when it became clear she’d missed the mark by 16.3 points. This poll will live in infamy, right alongside the ABC News/Washington Post poll that showed Joe Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 17 points the week before the 2020 election.

[Free Vulcan]

To Selzer's defense, I think her poll was accurate - in the sense of those  that were willing to answer. Problem is most weren't and the whole thing was skewed.

I don't think there were shenanigans, just only crap data able to be retrieved at that point before the election.

With the high early vote this year, most people in Iowa who've already voted just won't answer the phone.