It's complicated, and may become moreso in the near future. There is a larger count of provisional ballots than anticipated by the media. Nobody knows the true number. 40,000, 60,000, 120,000? McCormick is concerned that too many of these are going to become actual votes, since a significant percentage should be rejected under the law. The ballots are scattered throughout Pennsylvania but seem to have a disproportionate focus in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metropolitan areas. Something like 3/4 of the provisionals went to Fetterman in the midterm election. The margin is currently 40,000, so if 100,000 provisionals translate into votes, I think you can see where this is headed. The democrats know how many they need.