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Offline 240B

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Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« on: November 06, 2024, 01:28:26 pm »

Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path

Daily Mail
By Ellyn Lapointe
6 November 2024

A rare November Hurricane is barreling toward the US and could hit as early as this weekend.

Storm Rafael was upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane today and could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle.

The storm expected to hit western Cuba and the Isle of Youth within the next 12 hours.

From there, experts predict Rafael will emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight as a hurricane.

Tropical storm conditions are anticipated in Florida Keys, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issuing a warning to residents.

Americans have been advised to secure loose outdoor objects due to strong winds and flooding.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said that small changes in Rafael's strength and the winds around it can make a big difference in where it goes next.

The storm  gets a bit stronger or if the winds that push it change direction, its path could shift.

A spaghetti model - so-called because the lines resemble strands of pasta - revealed Rafael has four possible paths to the US, but has the highest probability of making landfall in Louisiana.

(more)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14048875/Hurricane-tracker-Rafael-path-lousiana-texas-florida.html
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2024, 01:36:29 pm »
NHC has this thing in a meandering kind of Central GOM out 7 days.  Poor folks in Cuba the short term will be dealing with a Cat 3 though. 

Considering the GOM has been nicely chilled by 4 and by that time 5 strong fronts, if there is any problem I am guessing it will be only tropical storm strength force.  And if there is any randomness to the path, it might just swirl out there, spin , and dissipate.

Things can change, but for us Texas Briefers, one of my favorite Cane stats, is that in a 180 years of records, there has never been a Cat 3,4, or 5 hit Texas in October, November, or December.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2024, 02:13:53 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline Wingnut

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2024, 01:40:51 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on November 06, 2024, 01:36:29 pm
NHC has this thing in a meandering kind of Central GOM out 7 days.  Poor folks in the short term will be dealing with a Cat 3 though. 

Considering the GOM has been nicely chilled by 4 and by that time 5 strong fronts, if there is any problem I am guessing it will be only tropical storm strength force.  And if there is any randomness to the path, it might just swirl out there, spin , and dissipate.

Things can change, but for us Texas Briefers, one of my favorite Cane stats, is that in a 180 years of records, there has never been a Cat 3,4, or 5 hit Texas in October, November, or December.

Okay look.  Here is my unscientific prediction.  That High pressure system sitting over the southeast combined with the lower GOM temp will snuff Raphie out like Trump did to Kamala last night.  So it won't even be a TS when it makes it to the gulf coast. 

You heard it here 2nd.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2024, 01:42:09 pm by Wingnut »
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2024, 01:44:52 pm »
Quote from: Wingnut on November 06, 2024, 01:40:51 pm
Okay look.  Here is my unscientific prediction.  That High pressure system sitting over the southeast combined with the lower GOM temp will snuff Raphie out like Trump did to Kamala last night.  So it won't even be a TS when it makes it to the gulf coast. 

You heard it here 2nd.

I like your analogy!!   :beer:
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Offline mountaineer

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2024, 02:08:14 pm »
Our local weather guy said on the noon news that this hurricane is not likely to have much impact on the U.S.
Havana is another story ...
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Offline mountaineer

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2024, 08:59:04 am »
Hurricane Rafael forecast to emerge in Gulf of Mexico after slamming Cuba with powerful winds, flooding rain
By Steven Yablonski, Fox News   
Published Nov. 7, 2024, 8:47 a.m. ET
NY Post
Quote
Powerful Hurricane Rafael slammed into Cuba as a major hurricane on Wednesday. The late-season tropical system has now emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, but the question now turns to where it is going next.

The Fox Forecast Center said that what’s happening now is a rare occurrence. Rafael remains a Category 2 hurricane as of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It’s the first Category 2 storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico in November since Hurricane Ida in 2009.

Cuba and parts of the western Caribbean no doubt took the brunt of the storm, which brought damaging, hurricane-force winds, flooding rain, and a potentially deadly storm surge.

A weather station in the Casablanca area of Havana reported a wind gust of 93 mph around the time of Rafael’s landfall on Wednesday afternoon. According to a report from Reuters, Cuba was plunged into darkness due to the impacts of the storm. ...
How could they tell?

But seriously:

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Offline Wingnut

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2024, 09:25:44 am »
Trumps red wave pushed it away from the gulf states to Mexico and Mexico will have to pay for it!

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Offline mountaineer

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2024, 09:28:05 am »
Quote from: Wingnut on November 07, 2024, 09:25:44 am
Trumps red wave pushed it away from the gulf states to Mexico and Mexico will have to pay for it!
Mexico's commie president said she wasn't going to acknowledge Trump as the next president. Oh, the irony.
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Offline Wingnut

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2024, 09:29:57 am »
Quote from: mountaineer on November 07, 2024, 09:28:05 am
Mexico's commie president said she wasn't going to acknowledge Trump as the next president. Oh, the irony.


Exactly!
Has the Mexican Jooo accepted Trump as President yet now that all the votes have been counted?
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2024, 09:31:20 am »
I've watched and analyzed  easily a 1000 of these, and seeing a direct E-W movement of a storm at this time of year is odd and rare.

Color me skeptical, NHC. 
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Offline mountaineer

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2024, 09:33:55 am »
Quote from: Wingnut on November 07, 2024, 09:29:57 am
Exactly!
Has the Mexican Jooo accepted Trump as President yet now that all the votes have been counted?
Yes, it appears she finally did so last night.
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Offline Wingnut

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2024, 09:34:01 am »
Quote from: catfish1957 on November 07, 2024, 09:31:20 am
I've watched and analyzed  easily a 1000 of these, and seeing a direct E-W movement of a storm at this time of year is odd and rare.

Color me skeptical, NHC.

Must be "Global Warming" don't you know.  Helter Skelter.
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Offline Wingnut

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2024, 09:38:15 am »
Quote from: mountaineer on November 07, 2024, 09:33:55 am
Yes, it appears she finally did so last night.

Thanks. She is worried.
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Offline GtHawk

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2024, 12:49:22 pm »
Quote from: Wingnut on November 07, 2024, 09:38:15 am
Thanks. She is worried.
She should be, if we finally build a real wall at the border and enforce the law she will be stuck with the horde of ‘migrants’ and finally have to deal with them instead of just passing them through. I hope Mejico chokes on them!
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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2024, 01:32:08 pm »
Quote from: GtHawk on November 07, 2024, 12:49:22 pm
She should be, if we finally build a real wall at the border and enforce the law she will be stuck with the horde of ‘migrants’ and finally have to deal with them instead of just passing them through. I hope Mejico chokes on them!

 :amen:  :beer:
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Offline rmc51

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Re: Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2024, 10:38:29 pm »
Quote from: Wingnut on November 06, 2024, 01:40:51 pm
Okay look.  Here is my unscientific prediction.  That High pressure system sitting over the southeast combined with the lower GOM temp will snuff Raphie out like Trump did to Kamala last night.  So it won't even be a TS when it makes it to the gulf coast. 

You heard it here 2nd.

WN:

I hope you are right. but as a veteran of too many of these, any time a storm loses it steering currents and stops/slows down and can be picked up by another steering current. It is a crapshoot as to where it will go. So far it has gone by with only bands of rain, but until it picks up and moves out, I don't like it. Not happy!

This is the third one this year that has just missed us.  tinystorm

 :hattip:
« Last Edit: November 07, 2024, 10:45:36 pm by rmc51 »
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