Pennsylvania Senate Race
With 98.7% reporting:
Dave McCormick - 3,371,062 - 49.0%
Bob Casey - 3,335,940 - 48.5%
John Thomas - 88,460 - 1.3%
Other candidates - 88,148 - 1.3%
The reported 1.3% of the vote remaining calculates to 90,665 votes. Mathematically, McCormick needs only 27,771 of those votes. Even if Casey gets all of the remaining 62,884 votes (i.e. 69%) without any going to third party candidates, he still loses.
McCormick's magic number is 3,398,834. This is the number he needs to hit. If he reaches this number and still loses, then the Dems added extra ballots to the total.
Back to that 69% number for Casey, there is only one County in all of Pennsylvania where his draw was that high - Philadelphia County.
With 98% of the vote reported in Philadelphia county, here are the numbers:
Casey - 536,962
McCormick - 128,410
Other - 19,357
Extrapolating this out, the final tally for Philadelphia County should be:
Casey - 547,920
McCormick - 131,030
Other - 19,752
This will yield Casey a gain of 8,338, far less than what he needs. There are twelve other counties where Casey leads, only one where he has over 60%.
If the Dems win this, it will be because they will have cheated or already did cheat. It will be nearly impossible for Casey to draw 69% of the remaining vote, unless that remaining vote is pre-stacked.
Here's where a few other counties are at. I am posting them now to have a record of where they were just in case.
Chester
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CASEY - 55.06% (Votes: 178,630)
MCCORMICK - 42.61% (Votes: 138,235)
Other - 7,548
Delaware
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CASEY - 60.30% (Votes: 193,663)
MCCORMICK - 37.40% (Votes: 120,128)
Other - 7,365
Montgomery
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CASEY - 59.81% (Votes: 305,522)
MCCORMICK - 37.96% (Votes: 193,920)
Other - 11,398
Bucks
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CASEY - 49.02% (Votes: 193,485)
MCCORMICK - 48.70% (Votes: 192,254)
Other - 9,005
Allegheny
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CASEY - 59.22% (Votes: 416,358)
MCCORMICK - 38.32% (Votes: 269,449)
Other - 17,304
Tomorrow, we can check these totals again to see if Casey receives a disproportionate percentage of ballots counted that day.
