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Author Topic: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day  (Read 592 times)

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Offline Free Vulcan

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Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« on: November 04, 2024, 02:39:50 pm »


According to a memo from the Trump campaign that PJ Media received, Democrats are experiencing a significant turnout problem in early voting compared to previous elections. The data shows that Republicans are outperforming Democrats in absentee ballots and early votes across all the battleground states. The memo also highlights a decrease in urban turnout for Democrats, while rural turnout appears to be rising, potentially benefiting Trump’s campaign.

"Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing," writes Tim Saler, the head of grassroots targeting and the chief data consultant for the Trump campaign and the RNC. "If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?"...

...As a result, Rasmussen Reports' polling has been consistent during this cycle and shows Trump “up two points nationally,” revealing a “mind change of about 6-7 points” from Biden to Trump from 2020 to 2024. He attributes this shift to “low propensity voters crawling over broken glass to vote Trump” while some Democrat-leaning voters stay “on the couch in traditionally blue areas.”

It certainly looks like Mitchell is correct, based on the aforementioned early vote numbers. He argued that the polling industry is still “a little bit left” of reality and underestimates the enthusiasm among Trump’s base.

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/11/04/democrats-have-a-serious-turnout-problem-heading-into-election-day-n4933957
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Online Bigun

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2024, 03:02:11 pm »
FWIW, I've not seen a single Harris/Waltz sign anywhere in Texas this year. Not a single one.
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Online Bigun

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2024, 03:09:16 pm »
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2024, 03:23:01 pm »
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Online bigheadfred

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2024, 03:38:32 pm »
Karoline Leavitt
@kleavittnh
I am speaking based on facts. Sorry you don't like them!

Here are the #'s, according to Democrat Data Expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart:

ARIZONA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -385,285
Female turnout is down -170,011

GEORGIA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -153,846
Female turnout is down -46,732

MICHIGAN COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -321,523
Female turnout is down -204,856

NORTH CAROLINA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -175,470
Female turnout is down -154,459

NEVADA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -191,199
Female turnout is down -126,112

PENNSYLVANIA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -381,519
Female turnout is down -450,802

WISCONSIN COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -100,733
Female turnout is down -238,452
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Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2024, 03:45:08 pm »
Thanks @bigheadfred for those. It's bigly because Rats operate on early, banked votes, as their base is far more unpredictable in getting them to the polls.

It also means many of these polls are skewed in the wrong direction. I don't care the demographic, if the vote is more rural than the polls are proportioning, then that favors Trump.

For example, look at the hurricane ravaged part of NC. they are voting heavy despite that.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2024, 03:47:02 pm by Free Vulcan »
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Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2024, 04:51:42 pm »
Quote from: Bigun on November 04, 2024, 03:02:11 pm
FWIW, I've not seen a single Harris/Waltz sign anywhere in Texas this year. Not a single one.

I've seen them around here, typically a neighbor puts up a Trump sign, and then their neighbors put up a Harris sign in retaliation.
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Online Bigun

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2024, 06:04:40 pm »
Quote from: bigheadfred on November 04, 2024, 03:38:32 pm
Karoline Leavitt
@kleavittnh
I am speaking based on facts. Sorry you don't like them!

Here are the #'s, according to Democrat Data Expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart:

ARIZONA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -385,285
Female turnout is down -170,011

GEORGIA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -153,846
Female turnout is down -46,732

MICHIGAN COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -321,523
Female turnout is down -204,856

NORTH CAROLINA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -175,470
Female turnout is down -154,459

NEVADA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -191,199
Female turnout is down -126,112

PENNSYLVANIA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -381,519
Female turnout is down -450,802

WISCONSIN COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -100,733
Female turnout is down -238,452

If true Kommiela is TOAST!
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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2024, 06:08:44 pm »
Quote from: Bigun on November 04, 2024, 03:02:11 pm
FWIW, I've not seen a single Harris/Waltz sign anywhere in Texas this year. Not a single one.

That’s amazing. There are more Trump signs around here than Harris, but they aren’t difficult to find.
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Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2024, 06:12:43 pm »
Quote from: bigheadfred on November 04, 2024, 03:38:32 pm
Karoline Leavitt
@kleavittnh
I am speaking based on facts. Sorry you don't like them!

Here are the #'s, according to Democrat Data Expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart:

ARIZONA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -385,285
Female turnout is down -170,011

GEORGIA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -153,846
Female turnout is down -46,732

MICHIGAN COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -321,523
Female turnout is down -204,856

NORTH CAROLINA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -175,470
Female turnout is down -154,459

NEVADA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -191,199
Female turnout is down -126,112

PENNSYLVANIA COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -381,519
Female turnout is down -450,802

WISCONSIN COMPARED TO 2020:
Urban turnout is down -100,733
Female turnout is down -238,452

Amazing. I was looking into the details of early voting for PA. 700,000 fewer Dems have voted compared to 2020 while the Republicans are on par with the last cycle. That kind of change can’t be explained by the Covid effect of 2020.
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Online Bigun

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Re: Democrats Have a Serious Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2024, 06:14:27 pm »
Quote from: Lando Lincoln on November 04, 2024, 06:08:44 pm
That’s amazing. There are more Trump signs around here than Harris, but they aren’t difficult to find.

I'm sure I could find one if I went looking but I haven't seen a single one in my normal travels.
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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien
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