Here's 10 things I am watching tomorrow night to get a feel of how this thng finally plays out.
1. Gender analysis in exit polling..... If Harris' advantage is >4%, it's not going to be a good night for Trump.
2. Early vote totals in Georgia and Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, DJT will need to have built up at least a 4% lead, before Shapiro unleashes the Pittsburg and Philly numbers. In Georgia, OTOH, I am watching overall turnout of Metro vs. Rural-Suburbia numbers. Dim GOTV efforts in Atlanta Metro will likely decide...
3. In 2020, a few of us manned the election thread here, and in real time and we witnessed the vote in harmony, stopped being counted in swng states, and afterwards the trends also in unison. We will need to watch closely for a repeat of this 1 in a billion phenomenon.
4. Hispanic vote. Though the numbers are all over the map, I am using a -18% deficit benchmark, to see if the MSG gaffe had any traction. If that deficit in exit polling is 18% or less, that ought to fare well for Trump
5. Split voting- Another key indicator is how well and how often the electorate in swing states split votes. I think generally Trump has to overperform those downballot by at least 2% to give him a legit chance.
6. Watch Ohio. Even though it is not the proverbial swing state anymore, it is still what I feel is a microcosm of the entire nation in general. This metric to me, is more along lines of where I feel the popular vote goes. In 2020, Trump won +9. Watch that number tomorrow night, because I think it will be a good indicator of where the entire popular vote lands.
7. Calling states. This is what I call the Franken Factor. If states start getting called early in Trump's column that is good. OTOH, as hours pass, each minute that does pass, adds to the probability that the democrats figure out a way to win it
8. Blue state differential- A WHOLE lot of Harris' early electorate power is being counted in the north east, VA, and IL. Watch her numbers versus Biden in '20. That is also going to be a good metric of the overall result.
9. Senate- I feel pretty good about the GOP reaching 51. Anything more than that (52-55) will be a good indicator that Trump's coattails are better than we thought, or vice versa.
10. Watch the punditry. That is the best metric of all to see how this thing is going. If we see CNN/CBS/MSNBC, etc, look like they need to be on suicide watch...... It's gonna be a good night for Trump. And the opposite rings true for Fox, and Newsmax.
