Harris holds commanding 10-point lead over Trump in Virginia: poll

[mystery-ak]

With just four days to Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 10-point lead over former President Trump in Virginia among likely voters, according to a new poll by Roanoke College.

The Trump campaign is hoping to flip the Old Dominion State red after losing in 2016 and 2020, with the former president making a last-minute stop in Salem on Saturday for a campaign rally. No Republican presidential candidate has won Virginia since former President George W. Bush's re-election in 2004.

Only 2% of likely voters say they are undecided and another 2% say they will vote for someone other than the five candidates on the ballot, according to the poll.

Harris leads Trump by 51% to 41%, with independent Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver both polling at 2%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is polling at 1%.

The economy was named as the most important issue by 43% of respondents, followed by abortion (20%) and immigration (12%). Foreign affairs (8%) came in next, followed by crime (3%).

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., leads his Republican challenger Hung Cao by 51% to 40%.

The poll interviewed 851 likely registered voters in Virginia from Oct. 25-29 and has a margin of error of 4.6%.

This is an excerpt from an article by Michael Dorgan.

Posted by Chris Pandolfo
https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/donald-trump-kamala-harris-election-news-11-2-24?asdf

[Timber Rattler]

https://www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll_politics_election_2024

Methodology 
 
Interviewing for the Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College in Salem, Virginia, between October 25 and October 29, 2024. A total of 851 completed interviews came from telephone calls and texts to registered voters in Virginia.   

Interviews were conducted in English.   

The sampling frame was created by generating a random subset of Virginia registered voters provided by L2 and augmented by Marketing Systems Group.  The sampling frame was randomly split so that half of the potential respondents would receive a text message with an invitation to complete the survey on their own before we would call them, and the other half would be called and interviewed over the phone by a live agent and send a text message afterwards with an invitation if the respondent was not available when we called.  In all cases, where the sample had both a cell phone number and landline number, calls were made to a potential respondent’s cell phone number.
 
Of the 851 responses, 19 (2%) were landline interviews, 450 (53%) were cell phone interviews, and 382 (45%) were completed by text to web. Three attention checks, survey completion time, and a manual review of all data were used to ensure quality control and data integrity for all web completions.
 
Questions answered by the sample of 851 respondents are subject to an error margin (including design effect) of plus or minus 4.6% at a confidence level of 95%. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples such as the one used here, the results should be at most 4.6 percentage points above or below the figure obtained by interviewing all registered voters in Virginia with a home telephone or a cellphone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the error margin is higher. 
 
Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, age, education, and political party. Weighting was done to match the 2020 Virginia Exit Poll. The design effect was 1.867. 

Roanoke is a tiny blue island in a big sea of dark red in Southwest Virginia, and is dominated by all the colleges and universities in the area, especially Virginia Tech and Radford University, along with Hollins University and Roanoke College.  This sampling by text message is just stupid too...which is why this is an absurd outlier.

[Right_in_Virginia]

[Right_in_Virginia]

[Smokin Joe]

https://www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll_politics_election_2024

Roanoke is a tiny blue island in a big sea of dark red in Southwest Virginia, and is dominated by all the colleges and universities in the area, especially Virginia Tech and Radford University, along with Hollins University and Roanoke College.  This sampling by text message is just stupid too...which is why this is an absurd outlier.

My thinking, too. College town. Not representative of the locale at all.

[cato potatoe]

He’ll lose VA because of the DC suburbs.  More like 3-5 points would be my guess.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Could be an outlier.

[andy58-in-nh]

TOTAL SAMPLE:

Democrat 36%
Republican 33%
Independent 17%
Other/None 12%
Don’t know/No answer 2%

IF INDEPENDENT: As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic party or toward the Republican party?

Democratic Party 43%
Republican Party 36%
Independent/Neither 17%
Don’t know/No answer 5%

Also, results were weighted based on 2020 turnout, which favored Democrats due to early voting. 

[240B]

None of the 'polls' really matter. It always depends on which channel you are watching or which publisher you are reading.
Just last night one of the talking heads mentioned this and said he dismisses it. It is good for the Dems to be overconfident.
Democrats were oversampled and Trump is ALWAYS underestimated.

[the OlLine Rebel]

He’ll lose VA because of the DC suburbs.  More like 3-5 points would be my guess.

The poison that has LONG sickened Maryland has finally taken over Virginia in the DC region.  Amazing the river protected it that long.  Virginia still in play due to its huge size.

[Bigun]

Could be an outlier.

Likely just another push poll.

[the OlLine Rebel]

Great, so you have 5000.

[the OlLine Rebel]

How popular is Youngkin?  I don’t hear much anymore since his election.  It sure would help if he seems to be popular.

[Wingnut]

Could be an outlier.

Could be. Could be Bullshit.  I'll  take BS for 1000 Alex's replacement.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Could be. Could be Bullshit.  I'll  take BS for 1000 Alex's replacement.

BS or not, I don't think Trump is competitive in Virginia. I could eat those words of course and if he is, Kamala is in big trouble.

[ScottinVA]

Harris will win in VA by 5-6%.  She’s under no threat to lose here.

[libertybele]

BS or not, I don't think Trump is competitive in Virginia. I could eat those words of course and if he is, Kamala is in big trouble.

Truth be known I think Kamel is in trouble BIGLY!!

[jafo2010]

Maybe I missed it, but the primary metric not shown is number of Dems vs Republicans vs Independents surveyed.  If 500 of the 851 surveyed were Dems, it is not a mystery why this number came out as it is.  And one theme apparent in ALL SURVEYS from liberal sources is the excess of registered Dems versus Republicans in surveys.

This survey isn't worth using to wipe my posterior it is so inferior!!!

[jafo2010]

Harris is holding a concert event in Philadelphia tomorrow night.  If it wasn't for the entertainers that turn out to entertain her crowds, NO ONE would turn out for the skank scarecrow without a brain.

[cato potatoe]

How popular is Youngkin?  I don’t hear much anymore since his election.  It sure would help if he seems to be popular.

High 50s.  I wish he were running for president, but MAGA will never give him the nomination. 

[catfish1957]

I can not believe how much the MSM has ran with that DesMoine paper's stupid idiotic Iowa poll, that was totally devoid of any demographic data.  AS A LEAD STORY.

Folks, don't buy it.  There's no plausibility at all in it.  Total Bogus poll. 

[catfish1957]

Reviewed this poll, and here are my observations-

* Small sample size 851, huge chance of MOE.
* Random instead of LV (Likely Voters)- Favors dem.
* 48-48 tie on immigration?  Give me a break
* 20% list Abortion as top priority in vote-  That seems high
* Racial- In line
* Ideology-  Knowing VA, they might have slightly undersampled Liberals
* Gender 50-49 Female.  Actually this is undersampiing women based on other early voting trends
* 45% of total poll from Central and North Virgina-  Seems these areas were oversampled, and that trends toward dem.
* Age profiles look decent
* Only 2% of interviews were on Land Lines.-  Def. favors dem.

Overall, I think this poll overestimated democrat support, but not enough to flip it for Trump.

[catfish1957]

Maybe I missed it, but the primary metric not shown is number of Dems vs Republicans vs Independents surveyed.  If 500 of the 851 surveyed were Dems, it is not a mystery why this number came out as it is.  And one theme apparent in ALL SURVEYS from liberal sources is the excess of registered Dems versus Republicans in surveys.

This survey isn't worth using to wipe my posterior it is so inferior!!!

From support doc.

https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RC%20Poll.October%202024%20topline.pdf



32. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate or conservative?

Liberal 25%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 34%
Other/Unsure 3%
Don’t know/Refused 2%

33. And would you describe your political party affiliation as Democrat, Republican, Independent, some other party or no affiliation?
Democrat- 36%
Republican-33%
Independent- 17%
Other/None- 12%
Don't Know- 2%

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/GuntherEagleman/status/1853211808506474653

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

https://twitter.com/GuntherEagleman/status/1853211808506474653

That doesn't look like a man on the verge of losing to me.