If This NYT Polling Result Is Even Close to Accurate, She's in Big Trouble
Guy Benson
November is now. With just days remaining before the 2024 presidential election, a lot of polling is swirling around, as are reports and analyses about what early voting trends might mean. I have no idea what to make of the polling. If it broadly underestimates Donald Trump's support for the third consecutive election in which his name is on the ballot, he is the odds-on favorite to win, and possibly rather comfortably. If the polling has been straightened out, and it's generally accurate, we will be in for a nail-biter that will boil down to turnout and ballot operations, the latter of which is believed to favor Democrats. If the polling has over-corrected, and is over-estimating Trump's support this time, Kamala Harris will likely be elected. As for the early voting, RealClearPolitics' data guru Sean Trende routinely warns about over-interpreting those numbers, as faulty extrapolations based on totally opaque and incomplete numbers can drive very bad conclusions. And as I've written about before, it seems to me that using the black swan COVID election of 2020 as a baseline for voting patterns this time could be a recipe for deeply flawed analysis.
Trende's one exception, however, is Nevada, which has a long history of early and mail-in balloting. The state's top elections analyst is Jon Ralston, a Democrat who wants his party to win, but doesn't seem to engage in wish-casting. He is data-driven. And what he keeps seeing is gangbusters turnout in rural areas eating away at Democrats' typical firewall in Clark County. Republicans have opened up and maintained a significant lead in the EV/AB totals, which seems to have the GOP quite hopeful, and the Democrats alarmed. Here was the substance and tone of his update for yesterday, for example:
Meanwhile, I've seen some arguments that Georgia's early turnout is concerning for Democrats, net-net. Same in Wisconsin. Same in Arizona (which Fox News has shifted to tilt red in their forecast). Possibly same in Philadelphia. North Carolina, as we covered earlier this week, also appears to be fairly promising, with newer data fortifying that belief among Tar Heel State Republicans. I remain cautious and unsure about what to feel confident about, however, given all the unknowns referenced above. Gallup now shows a ten-point Democratic enthusiasm advantage, which would be important for them, although it doesn't seem to be clearly showing up in the murky early data. Also, some Trump allies are sounding the alarm about how far male voters are lagging behind their female counterparts in crucial Pennsylvania. There are potential red flags flapping for Republicans. On the other hand, there's this preliminary analysis from the New York Times' Nate Cohn, who squints and sees a whiter, more Republican electorate -- so far, at least:
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https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2024/11/01/if-this-nyt-polling-result-is-even-close-to-accurate-shes-in-big-trouble-n2647067
