Unwinnable Wars, Risks of Escalation, and the Nuclear Taboo
.By Pavel K. Baev
Executive Summary:
This year’s Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors, underscoring the importance of preserving the international norm against the first use of nuclear weapons amid Russia’s increasing nuclear brinkmanship.
Putin has placed himself into an awkward position where his frequent nuclear brinkmanship and warnings about the growing risk of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO are perceived as ritualistic figures of speech.
Russia aspires to be a key player in a multi-polar world, but its aggression against Ukraine undercuts and compromises its status, aligning the country with rogue states such as Iran and North Korea.
The announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize on October 11 coincided with a dangerous phase in two long wars—Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine—that are both poised for escalation. Israel is set to deliver a strike on Iran in retaliation for the largest-ever attack by some 180 Iranian ballistic missiles, which primarily targeted Israeli airbases—and scored very few hits (TopWar.ru, October 8). Russia is pondering potential responses to Ukrainian long-distance strikes with Western weapon systems; this has not yet been authorized, but such a move is seen as inevitable by Moscow (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, October 9). The Norwegian Nobel Committee elected to hail a Japanese non-governmental organization’s project of preserving the tragic memory of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This points at the crucial importance of preserving the “nuclear taboo”—the international norm against the first use of nuclear weapons (Kommersant, October 11).
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/10/16/unwinnable_wars_risks_of_escalation_and_the_nuclear_taboo_1065488.html
