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Online corbe

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Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« on: October 14, 2024, 12:03:42 pm »
Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip

by Al Weaver - 10/14/24 6:00 AM ET

The battle for the Senate majority has hit its final month as Republicans race to end their four-year stint in the minority.

The GOP needs to win only one of two competitive races in red states — Montana and Ohio — to do just that, barring a surprise loss elsewhere. According to Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Republicans have a 72 percent chance of retaking the upper chamber.

The bigger question is whether Republicans can strike gold beyond those two contests and stretch their success across the battleground map.

Outside of West Virginia, which both parties concede will go red, here are the top five seats likely to flip into GOP hands:

Montana
Sen. Jon Tester (D) is in the fight of his political life as he stares down what has easily turned into the toughest reelection battle of his career.

<..snip..>

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4929560-senate-rankings-likely-flip-montana-ohio/
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Online corbe

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2024, 12:05:57 pm »
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Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2024, 12:29:20 pm »
The tightening in Wisconsin is real, I think. Baldwin seems to be losing traction and her attack ads on Hovde are growing whiskers. With DJT picking up steam, some coat tail effect could kick in. Fingers crossed.
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Online Polly Ticks

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2024, 12:35:02 pm »
Montana
Ohio
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania


#SavedYouAClick
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Online catfish1957

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2024, 12:45:34 pm »
The Senate is pretty much won with flipping WV, and MT.  Everthing else is just extra gravy.
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Online Bigun

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2024, 12:49:44 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on October 14, 2024, 12:45:34 pm
The Senate is pretty much won with flipping WV, and MT.  Everthing else is just extra gravy.

No such thing as too much gravy!
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Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2024, 01:03:59 pm »
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Online catfish1957

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2024, 01:05:58 pm »
Quote from: Weird Tolkienish Figure on October 14, 2024, 01:03:59 pm
Indeed. We shall see.

I am not optimistic this time either.  My bet is 51-49 senate GOP. And a 3-10 vote majority in the House.  Too many Reproductive rights issues on state ballots.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2024, 01:24:45 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on October 14, 2024, 01:05:58 pm
I am not optimistic this time either.  My bet is 51-49 senate GOP. And a 3-10 vote majority in the House.  Too many Reproductive rights issues on state ballots.
Also this may be happening to others as the chief RINO goes out vindictively.

Cruz and Scott, both McConnell critics, get cold shoulder amid tough races
The Hill
September 27, 2024

The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a big-dollar fundraising group affiliated with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), isn’t helping two of McConnell’s biggest critics in the Senate GOP conference — Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rick Scott (Fla.). This has prompted grumbling from conservatives who say McConnell has too much power over Senate Republican fundraising and point out that Cruz, in particular, a longtime McConnell critic, will be heavily outspent by his Democratic opponent, Texas Rep. Colin Allred, and his allies.

“It’s been well-known for over a decade, that since SLF has started, that McConnell has used it to reward his allies and punish conservatives. And it’s never been more apparent than this year, when two of the strongest allies of President Trump, Sen. Rick Scott and Sen. Ted Cruz, are being left to fight for their reelection on their own,” a conservative strategist said.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4902558-senate-leadership-fund-cruz-scott/
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Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2024, 03:46:01 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on October 14, 2024, 01:05:58 pm
I am not optimistic this time either.  My bet is 51-49 senate GOP. And a 3-10 vote majority in the House.  Too many Reproductive rights issues on state ballots.

I'm more optimistic based on the polling i'm seeing actually. But of course, polls are not infallible.
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Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2024, 03:52:25 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on October 14, 2024, 01:05:58 pm
I am not optimistic this time either.  My bet is 51-49 senate GOP. And a 3-10 vote majority in the House.  Too many Reproductive rights issues on state ballots.

It’s weird but the GOP may wind up with a larger majority in the Senate than the House. The House is likely to be very thin once more where “all the politics is local.”  There will be a large number of seats not called for days and we know which way those will go.
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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2024, 03:55:08 pm »
Might want to read this

GOP internal polling shows offensive targets just out of reach
https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,543889.0.html
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Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2024, 04:01:17 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on October 14, 2024, 03:55:08 pm
Might want to read this

GOP internal polling shows offensive targets just out of reach
https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,543889.0.html

Dang.
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Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2024, 05:09:13 pm »
Rcp no toss up has the gop winning senate 51 - 49.
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