Election tilts toward Trump as suspicions grow that some polls may be masking true size of his lead
Some pollsters have pointed to an apparent disconnect between state and national level surveys.
By Ben Whedon
Published: October 10, 2024 11:01pm
A string of polls from legacy outfits has pointed to a shift toward former President Donald Trump in most of the major battleground states while Vice President Harris maintains a national lead, but some analysts see a critical disconnect between state and national polling that could suggest the Republican is on even stronger footing.
Harris currently leads Trump by 2.0% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with 49.1% support to his 47.1%. That figure includes a Rasmussen Reports survey showing Trump with a two-point lead, a Reuters/Ipsos survey showing Harris up two, a Morning Consult poll with Harris up five, a Yahoo News poll with the race tied, and a number of other surveys. A New York Times/Siena College survey showed Harris up three points.
But pollsters have pointed to an apparent disconnect between state and national level polls, with state-level surveys increasingly shifting toward Trump while Harris seemingly holds steady at the national level. They have further observed two consistent patterns of national polling that appear to vary widely due to methodology.
Where things stand
Dominating headlines this week was a bombshell Quinnipiac University survey, which is typically favorable to Democrats, that showed Trump leading by 2% in Wisconsin and 3% in Michigan.
"The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy wrote.
Far from an outlier, other surveys have followed those results, showing Trump either tied or leading Harris in those battlegrounds. A survey from The Hill/Emerson College, for instance showed the Michigan race tied at 49% each. That survey found the same result in Wisconsin.
Polling averages currently show Trump poised to take Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona. Harris, for her part, holds narrow leads in Minnesota and Nevada. Should such results hold, Trump would handily carry the Electoral College, barring major upsets. The campaign released its own internal polling in a Thursday memo, showing Trump winning all seven of the key battleground states it tracked.
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