The 2024 Presidential Election Really Isn't That Close.. Rick Moran

[mystery-ak]

The 2024 Presidential Election Really Isn't That Close
Rick Moran | 9:39 AM on October 09, 2024


Citing conventional wisdom or an "appeal to authority" will reach out and bite you every time. The proverbial "appeal to authority" in an argument only works when the "authority" is credible.

The conventional wisdom that the 2024 presidential race is razor-close is based on polls. Frankly, pollsters themselves are warning us not to trust their work.

“There are a lot of sh***y polls out there,” said John Anzalone, who has done polling work for Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. And, added Greg Strimple, a Republican pollster, many hardcore Donald Trump voters aren't responding to polls at all, especially online polls.

Since the polling fiasco of 2016, pollsters have been playing catchup. They've tried different means to contact voters, including landlines, cell phones, texts, and door-to-door. It's not just Trump voters who are avoiding pollsters. Blacks, young women, and Latinos are also refusing the call of pollsters, thus skewing polls even more.

The bottom line is that what was once considered statistical analysis has now devolved into something little better than educated guessing. How to "weight" answers to create an accurate picture of the electorate has never been dicier.

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https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2024/10/09/the-2024-presidential-election-really-isnt-that-close-n4933183

[PeteS in CA]

I'll pop the "corks" on the Martinelli's when Trump is inaugurated in January 2025.

[massadvj]

The article is a big nothing burger. Polls might be accurate, or maybe they might not be. That might be skewed for Harris, or they might be skewed for Trump. We just don't know.

Thanks a lot.

My sense is that the polls are starting to reflect greater Trump support as the mainstream media needs to demonstrate some modicum of credibility. I can't prove that, but it seems likely to me.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Polls aren't reliable because the mediascape has become more fragmented.

Odds and spreads are tools for bookies to even out betting pools; not prognostication of future results.

[Wingnut]

Bet that left a mark!  Never trust a poll.

[roamer_1]

My sense is that the polls are starting to reflect greater Trump support as the mainstream media needs to demonstrate some modicum of credibility. I can't prove that, but it seems likely to me.

That's right... Just like the stock market... Just before a company crashes and burns, they pull the painters off, and the stocks go close to what's real.

Similarly, in the last 30 days polling projections tighten up and turn more toward what's real prediction.

[catfish1957]

The article is a big nothing burger. Polls might be accurate, or maybe they might not be. That might be skewed for Harris, or they might be skewed for Trump. We just don't know.

Thanks a lot.

My sense is that the polls are starting to reflect greater Trump support as the mainstream media needs to demonstrate some modicum of credibility. I can't prove that, but it seems likely to me.

Polls are basically a Schrodnger's Cat mental masturbation exercise.  The mind desires outcomes. The problem is, that polls are small samples of large populations, and much the same way you potentially and theoretically throw a 7 of the dice, a 1000 consecutive times.  Pure randomenss in the equation lends itself to huge variability. 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

No need for Trump voters to go out and vote? And how does this idiot know anything?