Hurricane Milton

[catfish1957]

1 pm intermediate update on Milton.

Now a hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 80 mph.  Moving east at 6 mph.  Little change in track (based on 11 am update), wind estimates bumped up to upper part of  Cat 3 status....  125 mph at landfall.

[jmyrlefuller]

Topic split and stickied.

[Cyber Liberty]

Topic split and stickied.

Thank you!

[mountaineer]

Published October 6, 2024 1:48pm EDT Updated October 6, 2024 5:19pm EDT
Hurricane Milton forecast to rapidly intensify to Category 4 as Florida braces for life-threatening impacts
With the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Milton is forecast to continue to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 4 strength by Tuesday before slightly weakening ahead of landfall in Florida on Wednesday. However, forecasters warn that Milton will likely still strike Florida as a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher).
By Steven Yablonski
 FOX Weather

TAMPA – Millions of people across the Florida Peninsula are on alert as Hurricane Milton is rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico while it continues on a path toward the Sunshine State. The hurricane is expected to reach Category 4 status before bringing a potentially life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and torrential rain to the state this week.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other state officials held a news conference on Sunday morning and said evacuations are likely, and time is running out to prepare for the hurricane's potentially deadly impacts. ... https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-hurricane-milton-florida-southeast

[catfish1957]

4PM Advisory ....

1.  Strength at landfall bumped again.  140 mph (Cat 4)
2.  Projection cone now empcomasses an area from Cedar Key to near Marco Islandm with the center line just south of Tampa.
3.  There is now a distinctive tight eye, and if the NHC data is right, this thing is strengthening rapidly.
4.  Milton does have a SW-NE elongation, which indicates there is some upper atmospheric cross winds. 
5.  The area off the west coast of FL has some very concentrated almost organized convection.  Even seems tropical in nature.
6.  Trough/Front in far NW GOM seems to be stalling.  Watch that line of demarcation.  Any retreat or moistening up of that air mass, should                mean a more northern  path.  If it persists, I am thinking the path follows more of a southern track
7.  As kind of a surprise, this thing flared upso quickly, Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Yucagan Penn.
8. This shaping up to be a historic bad year for hurricanes for Florida.  This will be the 3rd strike, and we are only in early October.

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1843020811235651751

[cato potatoe]

This thing is going to get ripped to shreds once is passes north of 25 degrees (the latitude of Key Largo) but it's probably going to enter that phase as a cat 4 or 5.  It is forecast to encounter the gulf coast before it totally disintegrates. 

[240B]

Florida braces for 'largest storm surge in a century' as millions are urged to evacuate and maps reveal where Hurricane Milton will hit

DAILYMAIL.COM
By Melissa Koenig
7 October 2024



Florida is bracing for the largest storm surge in a century with millions of people being urged to evacuate as maps have revealed where Hurricane Milton is set to hit.

The evacuation effort will become the biggest in seven years while the state continues to clear through the destruction left behind by Hurricane Helene.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has issued a state of emergency for 51 of the state's 67 counties, as officials across the state urge people to flee before Milton makes landfall at around 5pm Wednesday.

'Just go now. Beat the traffic and go now and just go to higher ground,' Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN she is telling residents.

Milton was centered late Sunday night about 230 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and 765 miles west-southwest of Tampa with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported.

(more)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13931655/Florida-storm-surge-evacuation-Milton-Hurricane-Helene.html

[Gefn]

MILTON WAS JUST UPGRADED TO A CAT 5.



update


https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-hurricane-milton-florida-southeast

[mystery-ak]

MILTON WAS JUST UPGRADED TO A CAT 5.



update


https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-hurricane-milton-florida-southeast

God help the people of Florida

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/Sassafrass_84/status/1843159682497876423

[Gefn]

LIVE: Hurricane Milton becomes a Category 5 storm as evacuations begin in Florida

Mandatory evacuations have been issued in Florida as residents scramble to prepare for Hurricane Milton, which has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

AccuWeatherUpdated Oct. 7, 2024 12:01 PM EDT


Hurricane watches have been issued for over 6 million people in west-central Florida, including the entire Tampa area, ahead of Hurricane Milton. Additionally, tropical storm watches are in effect for much of Florida’s Gulf Coast, including the Big Bend area, which was struck by Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago, as well as the Florida Keys.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/live-news/live-hurricane-milton-almost-a-category-4-storm-as-it-races-toward-florida/1700449



live thread-

[DefiantMassRINO]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
NOAA - NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER

[catfish1957]

MILTON WAS JUST UPGRADED TO A CAT 5.



update


https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-hurricane-milton-florida-southeast

Amazing....

Milton has a pinwheel sized eye, and that is not only fairly rare, but a hallmark of a monster, rapidly strengthening storm.  Milton himself is small as far as hurricanes, but what a whallop. The folks in Yucatan, better hope that the core center stays 20 or more miles off shore. 

NHC is forecasting some weakening before hitting the west gulf coast of FL.  Let's pray that is correct.  165 mph sustained winds at Tampa would be catastrophic.

[DefiantMassRINO]

https://www.floridadisaster.org/
Florida Division of Emergency Management

[Gefn]

@catfish1957

have we ever seen a storm over cat 5?

[catfish1957]

@catfish1957

have we ever seen a storm over cat 5?

Cat 5 is the max.  Here is the synopsis of the top 10 that I cut/pasted from a prior USA Today article...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/01/hurricane-ida-top-10-strongest-hurricanes/5671303001/

<snip>
Here are the strongest hurricanes to hit the U.S. mainland based on windspeed at landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center and USA TODAY records:

1. Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
2. Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
3. Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
4. Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
5. Hurricane Ian (2022): 150-mph in Florida;
5. Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana;
5. Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana;
5. Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida;
5. 1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas;
5. 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

So if Miton maintains present strength, and doesn't weaken, it would be tied for 3rd with Andrew.

[catfish1957]

Most important sat loop to watch right now?  This Water Vapor one, that does the best to physically show where the trough/front is versus the storm.  Let's not remember, it is highly unlikely that Milton is going to slam into much if any 50 degree dew point air masses. Upper air patterns take car of that in steering typically.  Right now, it is roughly from the TX-MX border running NE to the FL Big Bend. 

Very likely the path Milton takes as far as a N/S vector along the FL west coast is highly dependent on far or how long this front progresses.  Three def scenarios, based on whether the front (1) continues south (2) Stalls, or (3) Retreats or washes out.

[Bigun]

Cat 5 is the max.  Here is the synopsis of the top 10 that I cut/pasted from a prior USA Today article...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/01/hurricane-ida-top-10-strongest-hurricanes/5671303001/

<snip>
Here are the strongest hurricanes to hit the U.S. mainland based on windspeed at landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center and USA TODAY records:

1. Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
2. Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
3. Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
4. Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
5. Hurricane Ian (2022): 150-mph in Florida;
5. Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana;
5. Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana;
5. Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida;
5. 1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas;
5. 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

So if Miton maintains present strength, and doesn't weaken, it would be tied for 3rd with Andrew.

You missed Celia (7/31 - 8/5) which devastated the Corpus Christi area in 1970. I took a truck load of supplies in there shortly after for the Salvation Army and can tell you first hand that devastation is the right word. Winds hit 175 MPH before the instrument at the Naval Air Station bit the dust. @catfish1957

[catfish1957]

You missed Celia (7/31 - 8/5) which devastated the Corpus Christi area in 1970. I took a truck load of supplies in there shortly after for the Salvation Army and can tell you first hand that devastation is the right word. Winds hit 175 MPH before the instrument at the Naval Air Station bit the dust. @catfish1957

Not surprised USA today would not have a 100% correct article. 

[DefiantMassRINO]

Back in the day, we'd judge the strength of Nor'Easters by their barometic pressures in inches.

Anything below 28 inches was enough to be a serious subtropical cyclonic threat.

Milton is currently 925 mb (27.32 in) - it's a monster and a buzzsaw.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records
List of Atlantic hurricane records

[GtHawk]

I know this will sound, maybe odd, my brother and I don’t really talk anymore, well I don’t because he makes me crazy but he just moved to a city outside of Orlando(I honestly don’t know which one) and I was wondering if those of you who are knowledgeable about where and how hard this storm will hit couls let me know wht you think he might be in for.

[catfish1957]

1 pm update.

175 mph sustained winds.   Wow...

North Coast of Yucatan....  get ready to be whacked.

[DefiantMassRINO]

... inland usually gets tornados, flooding, downed trees and debris, and power outages.

I called my stepmother in Venice, FL, and left a message.  She lives on the edge of Flood Zones C and B.  If she has not been evacuated already, she may be evacuated soon.

[AllThatJazzZ]

I get so creeped out when I see a tight, well-formed eye like Milton is showing right now. Prayers for all the people in its path and for Gov. DeSantis and his team. What a HUGE WEIGHT has been placed on his shoulders, especially after already having to manage Helene.