If Israel has killed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, Iran retaliation is almost certain

[mystery-ak]

If Israel has killed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, Iran retaliation is almost certain
By
Tom Rogan
September 27, 2024 2:25 pm
.

The Israeli military has launched a series of massive air strikes targeting Hezbollah’s underground command headquarters in Beirut, Lebanon. The strikes on Friday were reportedly launched after Israel gathered intelligence that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was present at the headquarters.

Hezbollah’s command center was built under residential apartment blocks, so civilian casualties are likely to be high. Yet while European nations and others will protest this strike, Israel knows that key regional partners, such as Saudi Arabia and the Sunni monarchies, will quietly be applauding what it has done. Those governments are concerned by the civilian casualties incurred by Israeli actions against Hamas in Gaza, but they share Israel’s hatred of Hezbollah.

Still, Iran is likely to launch a significant retaliatory attack on Israel if Nasrallah has been killed. If Nasrallah has not been killed, then Hezbollah is highly likely to attempt to launch major missile and drone attacks deep into Israel. This will likely precipitate an Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon.

Iran has stood largely idle as Israel has steadily eliminated the core of Hezbollah’s leadership cadre in recent weeks. The most likely reason for Iran’s caution is that it fears taking action that might precipitate a U.S. military response, which undermines its increasingly tenuous domestic base of power, and ensuing Israeli strikes against its nuclear program. Still, the successful elimination of Nasrallah would represent a dramatic shift in the balance of power in Israel’s favor. Coming on the heels of the devastation Israel has already imposed upon Hezbollah, Nasrallah’s demise would undermine Iran’s theocratic project and its presentation of power. It would likely be seen by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as a direct challenge to the power viability of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It would be a challenge requiring visible and direct reprisal.

more
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/beltway-confidential/3169100/if-israel-killed-hezbollah-leader-nasrallah-iran-retaliation-almost-certain/

[Hoodat]

"Almost certain"?  Almost?  So what's holding them back (other than them being a bunch of cowards and bleep)?  I suspect that Iranian leaders are currently scouting around for clandestine locations to hide their families, lest they reach the same end as their Hezbollah puppets.

[PeteS in CA]

Iran will try harder to kill Jews than did their proxies, Hamas and Hez?

Among those whose pagers serious injured or killed were Iran's ambassador to Lebanon and several Revolutionary Guard soldiers - probably senior field-grade officers - in Syria.

[libertybele]

  

[berdie]

 

Absolutely!

[mystery-ak]

Photo: Netanyahu Approved Airstrike on Hezbollah HQ from New York Hotel Room



Joel B. Pollak 27 Sep 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved Friday’s airstrike on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut, Lebanon, from his hotel room in New York City prior to his speech to the United Nations General Assembly.

The Prime Minister’s Office released a photograph that it said showed Netanyahu approving the massive airstrike.

The massive attack targeted Hezbollah’s underground headquarters in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1839691226628448659

more
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2024/09/27/photo-netanyahu-approved-airstrike-on-hezbollah-hq-from-new-york-hotel-room/

[Right_in_Virginia]

Photo: Netanyahu Approved Airstrike on Hezbollah HQ from New York Hotel Room

Why release this photo?

[Hoodat]

Why release this photo?

To piss off Israel-haters.

[Right_in_Virginia]

To piss off Israel-haters.

Thanks for clarifying -----  I was afraid it was another calculation to link Israel's war with the United States and drag us into their fighting.

[rustynail]

.....Israel will kill you back..

[jafo2010]

The time is coming when Israel will finally approach these genocidal maniacs they way they should be approached.  Kill every last one of them.  There is zero collateral damage in a society that is comprised of genocidal maniacs that train their children to kill Jews from the time they can hold an AK-47.

Admiral William Halsey had it right in regard to addressing the enemy and their civilian population.  They were only good when six months dead!

[Hoodat]

Thanks for clarifying -----  I was afraid it was another calculation to link Israel's war with the United States and drag us into their fighting.

I seriously doubt that's what you were thinking.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Iran will only go after soft targets like the massacre of Oct 7.

It has no stomach to tee it off against Israel as it will lose.

[Right_in_Virginia]

I seriously doubt that's what you were thinking.

Why?  Did you miss how clear Bibi was in his speech today that he's again itching for war with Iran  --- a war he knows he cannot fight without us? 

Releasing a picture of Bibi ordering more bombings in Lebanon --- while in the United States--- gives the impression we stand with him. 

We should know by now that Bibi will try anything to do two things:  1. Piss off Iran and 2:  Move Americans closer to bleeding in his sand trap.  Releasing that photo could well be "two birds, one stone".

Or, not 

[Hoodat]

Why?  Did you miss how clear Bibi was in his speech today that he's again itching for war with Iran

It was easy to miss because it wasn't there.  You made it up.

Releasing a picture of Bibi ordering more bombings in Lebanon --- while in the United States--- gives the impression we stand with him.

Uh, no.  Attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon without telling the US, and doing so while on American soil tells the world that he doesn't need the US and will defend his country from anti-Israel terrorists whether we stand with him or not.

We should know by now that Bibi will try anything to do two things:  1. Piss off Iran and 2:  Move Americans closer to bleeding in his sand trap.

Pure bullshit.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Why?  Did you miss how clear Bibi was in his speech today that he's again itching for war with Iran  --- a war he knows he cannot fight without us?

It was easy to miss because it wasn't there.  You made it up.

See below:

Full text of Netanyahu’s UN speech: ‘Enough is enough,’ he says of Hezbollah, also warns Iran
Times of Israel, Sep 27, 2024

Now look at this second map. It’s a map of a curse. It’s a map of an arc of terror that Iran has created and imposed from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean. Iran’s malignant arc has shut down international waterways.°


Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Sept. 27, 2024.

It cuts off trade, it destroys nations from within, and inflicts misery on millions. On the one hand, a bright blessing—a future of hope. On the other hand, a dark future of despair. And if you think this dark map is only a curse for Israel, then you should think again.

Because Iran’s aggression, if it’s not checked, will endanger every single country in the Middle East, and many, many countries in the rest of the world, because Iran seeks to impose its radicalism well beyond the Middle East.

That’s why it funds terror networks on five continents. That’s why it builds ballistic missiles for nuclear warheads to threaten the entire world. For too long, the world has appeased Iran. It turned a blind eye to its internal repression. It turned a blind eye to its external aggression. Well, that appeasement must end. And that appeasement must end now.

Responsible governments should not only support Israel in rolling back Iran’s aggression, but they should join Israel. They should join Israel in stopping Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

For decades, I’ve been warning the world against Iran’s nuclear program. Our actions delayed this program by perhaps a decade, but we haven’t stopped it. We’ve delayed it, but we haven’t stopped it. Iran now seeks to weaponize its nuclear program. For the sake of the peace and security of all your countries.

For the sake of the peace and security of the entire world, we must not let that happen. And I assure you, Israel will do everything in its power to make sure it doesn’t happen.


https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-netanyahus-un-speech-enough-is-enough-he-says-of-hezbollah-also-warns-iran/

[Hoodat]

The phrase "checking their aggression" is not synonymous with "itching for war".  Not even close.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Uh, no.  Attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon without telling the US, and doing so while on American soil tells the world that he doesn't need the US and will defend his country from anti-Israel terrorists whether we stand with him or not.

Tearing up our checks and refusing our replacement armaments would tell the world Israel is an independent player.  The world knows this, even if you refuse to accept it.   

[Hoodat]

That's quite a hike relocating the goal posts there.  Especially since his current actions speak for themselves.  Bibi called Austin and told him he was striking Hezbollah as he was doing it.  He waited to ensure that the US regime didn't tip them off.  Not sure how any of that plays into your fantasy of Bibi itching for war with Iran and dragging the US along.

[mystery-ak]

Eliminated..it's official..

[bigheadfred]

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
·
1h
Hezbollah has announced the Death of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

[mountaineer]

[PeteS in CA]

It was easy to miss because it wasn't there.  You made it up. 1.


Uh, no.  Attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon without telling the US, and doing so while on American soil tells the world that he doesn't need the US and will defend his country from anti-Israel terrorists whether we stand with him or not. 2.
...

 1.  A year ago she was railing against Netanyahu because he had (in her opinion) had done too little. Now, 11 months later, she's railing against Netanyahu saying he's doing too much. It's NDS.

2. a. Netanyahu knew that if Israel told Biden & minions what was planned, the minions and/or Foggy Bottom would have warned the Hezzies ASAP.

2. b. For ~11 months Biden & minions have been arm-twisting and guilt-tripping Israel to let Hamas live another day (and continue attacking Israel). Not telling Biden & minions in advance was just another reminder that Israel isn't dancing Biden's & minions' dance, but will do what is best for Israel.

[PeteS in CA]

Roast & Rot In Peace, Nasrallah.

[Kamaji]

1.  A year ago she was railing against Netanyahu because he had (in her opinion) had done too little. Now, 11 months later, she's railing against Netanyahu saying he's doing too much. It's NDS.

2. a. Netanyahu knew that if Israel told Biden & minions what was planned, the minions and/or Foggy Bottom would have warned the Hezzies ASAP.

2. b. For ~11 months Biden & minions have been arm-twisting and guilt-tripping Israel to let Hamas live another day (and continue attacking Israel). Not telling Biden & minions in advance was just another reminder that Israel isn't dancing Biden's & minions' dance, but will do what is best for Israel.

[Kamaji]

To piss off Israel-haters.

Mission accomplished, apparently.

[libertybele]

Mission accomplished, apparently.

Hopefully those Americans and Brits at the embassies in Lebanon have fled.

[Smokin Joe]

The phrase "checking their aggression" is not synonymous with "itching for war".  Not even close.

Agreed. He calls for the Saudis to get on board along with other Arab nations for their mutual benefit, for prosperity and peace for the region. THat isn't exactly saber rattling, nor a call to arms. Instead he is pointing out that the influence of one nation's leadership is making their youth bleed needlessly, their people live in hardship without justification, when all could be healthy and prosperous.

I listened to the entire speech and thought he made the case for cooperation against terrorism well, and the case for Israel's self-defense, despite the efforts of many to portray Israel as the aggressor. He even went so far as to say that Israel is not at war with Lebanon, but with Hizb'allah (a known and listed terrorist organization) and he said they had warned the civilians to get clear of the terrorists and not allow themselves to be used as human shields.
Pity the representatives of many of the Arab nations were absent. You cannot appeal to those who will not listen.
It seemed more a call to reject terrorism than to go to war with Iran.
In the event Israel goes to war with Iran, what makes anyone think they can't handle it themselves? Most of the interaction thus far has been defensive or specifically targeted, not all out offensive hostility.

[Kamaji]

Agreed. He calls for the Saudis to get on board along with other Arab nations for their mutual benefit, for prosperity and peace for the region. THat isn't exactly saber rattling, nor a call to arms. Instead he is pointing out that the influence of one nation's leadership is making their youth bleed needlessly, their people live in hardship without justification, when all could be healthy and prosperous.

I listened to the entire speech and thought he made the case for cooperation against terrorism well, and the case for Israel's self-defense, despite the efforts of many to portray Israel as the aggressor. He even went so far as to say that Israel is not at war with Lebanon, but with Hizb'allah (a known and listed terrorist organization) and he said they had warned the civilians to get clear of the terrorists and not allow themselves to be used as human shields.
Pity the representatives of many of the Arab nations were absent. You cannot appeal to those who will not listen.
It seemed more a call to reject terrorism than to go to war with Iran.
In the event Israel goes to war with Iran, what makes anyone think they can't handle it themselves? Most of the interaction thus far has been defensive or specifically targeted, not all out offensive hostility.

[Hoodat]

Mission accomplished, apparently.

Yep.

[Timber Rattler]

Retaliation with what, exactly?

[Hoodat]

I'm no fan of Erick Erickson, but he grew up in the Middle East and offers a perspective here based on that inside knowledge:

Good Riddance

Erick-Woods Erickson  |  Sep 28, 2024

Growing up overseas, our school was only a few blocks from the beach. We could see the Persian Gulf from the third floor windows. Our school, the Jumeirah American School, was funded mostly by the oil company my father worked for, Dubai Petroleum Company.  .  .

  .  .  .  One day, in fifth grade, I was in science class with Mr. Bruskas and the other fifth grade teacher came in. She whispered in his ear. She passed him a piece of paper. He adjourned the lesson and told us to pack up our stuff because we were going to the field.  .  .  .

  .  .  . We were evacuating.

School officials had reason to believe a group called Hezbollah intended to blow up the school and kill us.

Several days later, when we returned to school, guards were stationed at each entrance. They would inspect all our stuff — even opening our lunch bags to check out the sandwiches. Down the road, in Abu Dhabi, the kids there got to witness a tank parked outside and even more armed operations.

Our class trips, which always were to other countries, were canceled. Security became an issue.

Today, the man who tried to kill me has, himself, been killed. Hassan Nasrallah is dead.

My friends from Lebanon who I grew up with are beside themselves with joy. Nasrallah took a city, once called the Paris of the Mediterranean, and turned it into a war zone. Hezbollah is a fundamentally evil organization. It has killed more Arabs than any other entity. It has killed Jews and Americans. So many of my friends growing up were refugees from Iran and their Hezbollah puppets.

Nasrallah and his minion orchestrated the execution of American Marines in Beirut and the United States never hunted him. Israel has done what we did not.

Good riddance. The fires of hell give me comfort here. Nazrallah may have departed this world, but he cannot depart the next. The pain of his final seconds in this world will only be the beginning for him.  .  .  .

https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/good-riddance

[bigheadfred]

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
·
31m
JUST IN: Israel has reportedly eliminated Hezbollah’s Hassan Khalil Yassin, who replaced Hassan Nasrallah hours ago, per Axios

[Hoodat]

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
·
31m
JUST IN: Israel has reportedly eliminated Hezbollah’s Hassan Khalil Yassin, who replaced Hassan Nasrallah hours ago, per Axios

[Kamaji]

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
·
31m
JUST IN: Israel has reportedly eliminated Hezbollah’s Hassan Khalil Yassin, who replaced Hassan Nasrallah hours ago, per Axios

There won't be more than a few scullery maids left if this keeps up.

[Hoodat]

OK, show of hands - who wants to be the new leader of Hezbollah?  Let me see those hands.

[bigheadfred]

OK, show of hands - who wants to be the new leader of Hezbollah?  Let me see those hands.

I see what you did there.   

[Timber Rattler]

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
·
31m
JUST IN: Israel has reportedly eliminated Hezbollah’s Hassan Khalil Yassin, who replaced Hassan Nasrallah hours ago, per Axios

NEXT!

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Nasrallah Fallout
September 28, 2024 by John Hinderaker
The London Times is a liberal paper, but not far-left like the New York Times or the Washington Post. So it is not surprising to see this headline: “Why killing of Hassan Nasrallah marks beginning of the end for Iran.”

The piece is by Lina Khatib, associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. Some excerpts:

Iran found in Nasrallah a valuable tool for expanding its influence in the Middle East. Since 1979, to pursue its goal of becoming the Middle East’s regional leader, Iran has established a franchise of armed groups in Arab countries, including Iraq, Yemen and Syria, of which Hezbollah is the oldest and strongest.
***
For Iran, Nasrallah’s personification of hope, strength and military credibility became immensely useful for rallying its proxies in the Middle East. Iran summoned Hezbollah to mentor and help train members of other groups. … Beirut became a hub where the leaders of Iran’s proxies gathered and Hezbollah would release photos of them meeting Nasrallah.
***
Although Hezbollah will not collapse with the killing of Nasrallah, the fact that Israel managed to get him exposes the extent of the group’s current vulnerability to its longstanding enemy. It is a huge blow to Hezbollah’s morale and undermines its standing among its allies as a group with robust security. With Nasrallah’s killing, the invincibility of Hezbollah has been shown to be a façade. This sparks a tectonic shift in Iran’s relationships in the Middle East.

Iran-backed groups all over the region will see in Nasrallah’s elimination and Hezbollah’s weakening a real concern about their own security: if Israel is able to bring Iran’s most powerful asset in the Middle East to its knees, then smaller, newer groups in Iran’s network are potentially easier to undermine. And though Iran managed to maintain its regional influence despite the assassination of Soleimani, that assassination was a one-off event. The killing of Nasrallah is part of a wider Israeli campaign to neutralise Hezbollah, potentially marking the beginning of the end for Iran’s regional influence in the Middle East.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/09/nasrallah-fallout.php

[mountaineer]

The US Embassy in Iraq is under siege

https://twitter.com/PhilHollowayEsq/status/1840189611676512533

[mystery-ak]

 Israel killed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah with 80 tons of bunker-buster bombs after spies spent years penetrating his entire network
By Ronny Reyes   
Published Sep. 29, 2024, 1:02 p.m. ET

The devastating airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was the result of a years-long operation by Israeli intelligence that penetrated the terror leader’s entire network — allowing him to be tracked to his underground command center in Beirut.

The Israeli military then used 80 tons of specially designed bunker-busting bombs to blast through the heavily fortified hideout on Friday and kill the slippery Nasrallah — who has survived multiple previous attempts to assassinate him.

Nasrallah’s death was exactly what Israel had been hoping for when it launched a bombing campaign that day, the Financial Times reports.

Unbeknownst to Nasrallah, Israeli intelligence was well aware of the movements of Hezbollah’s leadership following years of hacking and surveillance work on the Lebanese terror group — which is one of the largest and best armed militias in the world.

more
https://nypost.com/2024/09/29/world-news/how-israel-tracked-and-killed-hezbollah-leader-nasrallah/

[mystery-ak]

Israel spent months developing bombs that would dig through the earth and reach Hezbollah's underground bunkers.

[mystery-ak]

 Brother of Navy diver killed in 1985 Hezbollah hijack says the world is a ‘better place with Nasrallah not in it’
By Doree Lewak and
Olivia Land   
Published Sep. 28, 2024, 4:09 p.m. ET

A retired Navy SEAL whose brother was killed by Hezbollah terrorists expressed relief when he heard that Hassan Nasrallah was killed.

“When the sun went down yesterday, the world was a better place with Nasrallah not in it,” Kenneth Stethem told The Post on Saturday, less than 24 hours after Nasrallah, 64, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on a Beirut suburb.

“Ever since [Hezbollah’s] inception in 1982, Nasrallah and others like him have caused much death and destruction,” he said.


TWA Flight 847 out of Athens was hijacked by terrorists in June 1985.

Stethem would know: His brother, Navy diver Robert Dean “Robbie” Stethem, was killed by Hezbollah terrorists during the June 1985 TWA Flight 847 hijacking.



Robert Dean Stethem was killed on June 15, 1985. US Dept of Defense

“I remember when they came to the door and told us. The sound that came from [our mother] sounded like an animal that had just been hit by a car. Never, never heard screams like that before or after,” Kenneth Stethem told The Post of the moment the family learned their son and brother had been murdered.

more
https://nypost.com/2024/09/28/world-news/brother-of-navy-diver-killed-in-hezbollah-hijacking-in-1985-reacts-to-nasrallahs-death/

[mystery-ak]

I remember this well...

[Timber Rattler]

I remember this well...

Me too, and it irks me to this day that Reagan never really did anything about it, just left Hezbollah alone.