2024 hurricane season: the worst climate prediction ever?
The Observatory
13 Sep 2024
Written By Dr David Whitehouse
Only 6 named storms so far, 17–25 predicted.
Cast your mind back to May 23 and a press release from NOAA predicting an above-normal hurricane season. They were quite definite that it would be a very active season, giving an 85% change of above-normal, 10% near normal and 5% below-normal. Specifically, it forecast a range of 17–25 named storms, 8–11 becoming hurricanes and 4–7 major hurricanes, adding that forecasters had a 90% confidence in these ranges. The University of Pennsylvania put out an even more dramatic press release, saying that Michael Mann predicted a record-breaking 33 named storms this season, the highest count ever projected.
The hurricane season goes from June 1 to November 30 and initially the omens were good. Near-record ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, slower Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favour the development of tropical storms.
The season started energetically. The first named storm was Alberto on June 19. Then came hurricane Beryl, which was an extremely rare June major hurricane. It was the earliest Category 5 hurricane, and only the second recorded in July. Then things quietened down. In August hurricane Debby arrived, and then Ernesto in mid-August, then it became very quiet until Francine in early September.
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/2024-hurricane-season-the-worst-climate-prediction-ever
