Harris honeymoon is over: Sun Belt polls put Trump on path to presidency
By A.G. Gancarski
Published Sep. 23, 2024, 11:43 a.m. ET
New polling of a trio of Southern battleground states shows the Kamala Harris honeymoon has ended in some of the few truly competitive states up for grabs this November.
Donald Trump is sweeping Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, according to New York Times/Siena College polling conducted Sept. 1 to 21, reversing Harris’ leads in two of the states along the way.
If Trump wins these states as this polling suggests, he’d be on a path to 262 electoral votes, meaning he’d only have to take one of the blue-wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin) to win the White House.
Among 713 likely Arizona voters, the former president scored his most stunning reversal in any of the three states in these data, taking what was a 5-point Harris lead in August and turning it into a 5-point lead of his own, 50% to 45%.
Voters age 45 and up are bought in. Trump has 58% support among those between 45 and 64 years of age and 53% support among senior citizens.
He also dominates among white people who haven’t gone to college, with 63% support in that group. But his biggest trove of support anywhere in Arizona is 74% in the western part of the state.
As other polls have shown, Trump’s strength doesn’t appear to be sufficient to power Kari Lake to the Senate. She trails Democrat Ruben Gallego 49% to 43%. Gallego leads with registered independents, 53% to 36%.
In Georgia, Trump led by 4 points in a two-person race last month, and he holds the same lead among 682 likely voters, 49% to 45%.
A whopping 70% of white voters back Trump in the Peach State, including 78% of whites who did not go to college. Trump also has 74% in North Georgia, his strongest geographical area.
Few of the former president’s 2020 voters have buyers’ remorse. Trump is on track to get 97% of them and leads Harris by 12 points with people who didn’t vote in the last presidential election.
Turning to the Tar Heel State, Trump has inverted what was a 2-point Harris lead, with 60% support from white voters, 60% support from the Charlotte suburbs and 66% backing in the western part of the state driving his 49% to Harris’ 47%. Trump also is ahead here, 49% to 42%, with those who did not vote in 2020.
Trump’s coattails among these 682 likely voters aren’t helping scandal-plagued gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, however. The lieutenant governor is down by 10 points to Democrat Josh Stein, with only 72% of Trump supporters backing him.
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