Fox News Poll: Harris tops Trump by two points
The latest Fox News national survey finds 3-point shift since August
By Dana Blanton Fox News
Published September 18, 2024 6:00pm EDT
Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class, and Hispanics and independents swing in her direction.
The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.
This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support, and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters. That’s unsurprising given most Americans who are willing to spend time answering a political survey are also probably going to vote.
Of course, presidential elections are decided by electoral votes from the states, not national vote totals. Hillary Clinton had a 2-point popular vote margin over Trump in 2016 but lost the Electoral College 304-227, while Biden’s 4-point popular vote win in 2020 translated to a 306-232 Electoral College victory.
Since the August survey, many events have occurred that could affect voter opinion: the Democratic National Convention was held; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump; former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney endorsed Harris; and the candidates faced off in a debate. A second assassination attempt on Trump happened about three-quarters of the way into the new survey.
The biggest change since last month is that independents and Hispanics have swung Harris’ way. Hispanics favored Trump by 6 points in August, but they go for Harris by 12 points today. Independents went for Trump by 8 points last month, but now prefer Harris by 12. It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here.
much more here
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-tops-trump-two-points
