Harris holds 6-point national lead over Trump in post-debate polling

[mystery-ak]

 Harris holds 6-point national lead over Trump in post-debate polling
by Filip Timotija - 09/17/24 7:55 AM ET

Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump nationally by 6 points, according to a polling released a week after the first debate between the party nominees.

The Morning Consult survey, unveiled Tuesday, found that Harris garnered 51 percent support among likely voters — her highest margin to date — compared to Trump’s 45 percent. Some 2 percent said they would prefer someone else, while another 2 percent had no opinion. The vice president’s lead is outside the survey’s margin of error.

Harris had the same level of separation among independents with 47 percent backing her. Around 41 percent of independents sided with Trump, while 6 percent said they would prefer another choice, according to the poll.

Roughly 6 out of 10 likely voters who watched the ABC News debate, 61 percent, said that the vice president was the winner. Around 1 in 5 Republicans reached the same conclusion. About 33 percent of those likely voters surveyed said that Trump, the GOP nominee, won the showdown.

The Democratic nominee also holds an advantage in terms of favorability. Over half of likely voters surveyed, 53 percent, have a favorable view of Harris while 44 percent said the same about the former president.

The polling also found that Harris leads the former president among younger voters. Around 56 percent of voters aged 18-34 sided with the vice president while 41 percent picked Trump.

Harris also has a 60-point lead among Black voters, with 78 percent backing her, per the poll. Around 18 percent of Black voters surveyed picked Trump.

In The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s aggregate of polls, Harris boats a 3-percent advantage over Trump — or 49.6 percent to the former president’s 46.2 percent.

The Morning Consult survey was conducted Sept. 13-15 among 11,022 likely voters. The margin of error was 1 percentage point.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4883524-kamala-harris-donald-trump-post-debate-polling/

[Wingnut]

I have just spent the last 5 days traveling the rural areas from southern to northern wisc and southern to northern Minnesota.  Places where the real American live and work for a living. Far away from the big cities where people live for a hand-out and vote to destroy the country for those hard working Americans.

During the trip all we saw in the small towns and on the two lane blacktops meandering thru the fields dotted with farms  were Trump Vance signs.  Lot and lots of them.  I hope those folks vote in droves and help Trump win WI and MN.

[mystery-ak]

The margin of error was 1 percentage point.

I have never seen a MOE this low....I don't believe this poll for a second..

@Wingnut

Unfortunately the big cities have more voters than the rural areas...a prime example is Illinois where most of Il is red except for the Chicago and EStLouis areas.

[rustynail]

Just like the Great Dharmachakra Kamalamentum Rolls On!

[Right_in_Virginia]

Jack Poso
@JackPosobiec

If Trump were losing the assassination attempts would be unnecessary

10:31 AM · Sep 17, 2024

[banddag]

I have just spent the last 5 days traveling the rural areas from southern to northern wisc and southern to northern Minnesota.  Places where the real American live and work for a living. Far away from the big cities where people live for a hand-out and vote to destroy the country for those hard working Americans.

During the trip all we saw in the small towns and on the two lane blacktops meandering thru the fields dotted with farms  were Trump Vance signs.  Lot and lots of them.  I hope those folks vote in droves and help Trump win WI and MN.

The problem is the urban areas with all the mega population centers are going for Harris or tend to lean democrat.  Why Trump won 2200+ counties and Biden won 450 (don't quote me on the exact numbers) in 2020

Another issue is 22 million baby boomers have died since 2016 who tend to vote conservative and 34 million new people age 18-45 since 2016 who tend to vote overwhemingly democrat.

The GOP has  a demographic issue and not stolen elections as the GOP elite want you to believe. Republicans/conservtaives are being  out demographiced.

I live in a very rural, small population county. which votes 85% Trump.  There are small suburbs outside major cities  in a just a few square miles that vote democrat that have more people than in  my entire county.

@Wingnut

[catfish1957]

This morning consult poll is a hoot.....

Here is the demographic breakdown from their last poll. (Try not to laugh too much)

All Voters- 51-45 Harris
Democrats- 94-4 Harris
Indys- 47-41 Harris
Republicans- 91-6 Trump
Biden 2020 voters- 93-4 Harris
Trump 2020 voters- 91-5 Trump
Age 18-34- 56-41 Harris
Black Voters- 78-18 Harris

??????
---------
Indy's breaking 6 for Harris?  Implausible for a incumbant with this disasterous of a record
2020 base voters breaking more for the dims?  That makes no sense, given the turmoil, and the quality of their candidates.

Morning Consult hides their raw data, under the guise of a "subscription need". So I can't parse the data to see the fine detail.

Our summer home, where my wife is from, is a pretty split 50/50 dim/GOP.  In 2020, I'd say locally that Biden signs outnumbered Trump by 70/30 ratio.  This year?  60/40 Trump.  I know this is anecdotal, but seems to be repeating elsewhere.

[andy58-in-nh]

This morning consult poll is a hoot.....

Here is the demographic breakdown from their last poll. (Try not to laugh too much)

All Voters- 51-45 Harris
Democrats- 94-4 Harris
Indys- 47-41 Harris
Republicans- 91-6 Trump
Biden 2020 voters- 93-4 Harris
Trump 2020 voters- 91-5 Trump
Age 18-34- 56-41 Harris
Black Voters- 78-18 Harris

??????
---------
Indy's breaking 6 for Harris?  Implausible for a incumbant with this disasterous of a record
2020 base voters breaking more for the dims?  That makes no sense, given the turmoil, and the quality of their candidates.

Morning Consult hides their raw data, under the guise of a "subscription need". So I can't parse the data to see the fine detail.

Our summer home, where my wife is from, is a pretty split 50/50 dim/GOP.  In 2020, I'd say locally that Biden signs outnumbered Trump by 70/30 ratio.  This year?  60/40 Trump.  I know this is anecdotal, but seems to be repeating elsewhere.

@catfish1957

Given those numbers, if the demo split were, for example: 32% R, 32% D and 36% Ind., then you would get a Trump lead by roughly 51%-49%... which tells you that they weighted Democrats over Republicans by a significant amount.

[catfish1957]

@catfish1957

Given those numbers, if the demo split were, for example: 32% R, 32% D and 36% Ind., then you would get a Trump lead by roughly 51%-49%... which tells you that they weighted Democrats over Republicans by a significant amount.

That's the whole rub Andy....   Morning Consult makes you pay for their raw data, which how many layman are going to pay. 

I have no idea how they weighed the demographics'

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I have just spent the last 5 days traveling the rural areas from southern to northern wisc and southern to northern Minnesota.  Places where the real American live and work for a living. Far away from the big cities where people live for a hand-out and vote to destroy the country for those hard working Americans.

During the trip all we saw in the small towns and on the two lane blacktops meandering thru the fields dotted with farms  were Trump Vance signs.  Lot and lots of them.  I hope those folks vote in droves and help Trump win WI and MN.

Trump will never win MN, but could win WI.

[cato potatoe]

We had better face the reality that Harris is in a strong position after Trump’s debate meltdown.  He hasn’t been much better since.