Why polls might not show a ‘Trump surge’
By
Emily Hallas
September 13, 2024 10:52 am
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The race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris might not be as tight as the polls indicate.
The New York Times and RealClearPolitics averages of national polling show the two presidential candidates in a dead heat. In the latest survey from the Wall Street Journal, they appear to be running neck-to-neck.
But do polls reflect the true state of the race? Here are three reasons why polling now should be taken with a grain of salt.
History repeats
Polls have led political pundits astray in the past, particularly around the odds of Trump winning the presidency. In 2016, Trump defied expectations (and polling data) when he clinched the White House in a shocking victory against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
At the time, polls in battleground states prior to Election Day proved to be wrong. Clinton’s large lead in Wisconsin turned into a striking loss after Trump ended up flipping the state red for the first time since the Reagan era. Likewise, Clinton’s leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania also turned into surprise Trump victories that year.
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