Francine has done a nice job of getting its act together, and will approach the LA Coast, likely as a Cat 1, or minimal Cat 2.
Models and projections are continually shifting east as I predicted. That low area along the gulf has consilidated eastward, likely giving Francine a nice pressure gradient conduit for an eventual NE trek, and then northward after landfall.
There still seems to be a massive amount of upper level SW->NE shear, as when you view the sat photos of the storm it is incredibly elongagted. While the center is still of the coast of northern Mexico, at least as much or more of the storm convection has been stripped, and is in a huge clump of precip that essentially is filling the entire GOM from 90-95W Long and 25-30N Lat.
I think watching this large side clump of precip, will or should give an idea of how Francine will progress. While the present course has the center line heading toward Morgan City, I wouldn't be surprised to see the path shift eastward a couple of more times, putting NOLA, Biloxi, and Mobile more into play.
Intensity wise, the NHC is looking at about 80 mph at land fall (Cat 1) Though, looking at how convection is being ripped off, I am a little skeptical of this level of intensification. OTOH, a move from 65 mph (now) to 85 mph in a 48 hour period in this hot of Gulf water, is pretty plausible too. What is also somewhat bizzare is that secondary bit of convection is so impressive, I can also see what might be a secondary CIC. I know.... not likely, but the individual thunderstorms at 28N 93W almost seem to be forming what seems a center. BUT... it does also seem that the clump of convection is moving away from Francine faster than the storm itself. So, this just might be a diurnal regen.
Last observation is that once you get above 30N Lat, the upper level winds are whipping up big time. I think this is why the NHC is thinking that Francine might weaken a little bit before landfall. Still, one this storm goes inland, I expect rapid de-intensification, though of course the Low itself will persist inland in the Mid West at least a week. I do see there is still a massive amount of dry air at and North of Interstate 20, so that will hasten that demise too.
