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Online mystery-ak

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Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
« on: September 06, 2024, 02:09:37 pm »
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Re: Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2024, 02:13:14 pm »
I have grudging respect for Silver, but I no longer trust any polls and not sure it matters anyway. It's gonna come down to how hard the Rats are going to push the cheat vote.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2024, 02:15:30 pm »
The election now is about winning news cycles.  After camel-uh busted into the scene, plus the DNC, she had a streak going.

In the past 7-10 days, we've had the RFK endorsement, Musk Endorsement, Fridman Podcast, Walz stolen valor, and some bad econ news.  Plus Tuesday looms BIGLY. If Trump can hold his own and fight off ABC, he might seal the deal by this time next week.

Or, if he unravels, we will see a squeaker.  And that squeaker favors the dims.   It always does (Franken Factor)
« Last Edit: September 06, 2024, 02:17:18 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline cato potatoe

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Re: Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2024, 02:38:56 pm »
It’s about 50/50 if you assume the convention bounces are flushed out.  Kennedy probably netted a point for Trump.  The democrats have a major cash advantage, which is what worried me from the start. 
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2024, 02:40:13 pm »
Quote from: cato potatoe on September 06, 2024, 02:38:56 pm
It’s about 50/50 if you assume the convention bounces are flushed out.  Kennedy probably netted a point for Trump.  The democrats have a major cash advantage, which is what worried me from the start.

As evidenced in Camel-uh down loading $25M to down ballot races.  These turds are swimming in cash.
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Re: Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2024, 03:10:36 pm »
I thought Nate Silver and 538 parted ways?
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2024, 03:30:51 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on September 06, 2024, 02:40:13 pm
As evidenced in Camel-uh down loading $25M to down ballot races.  These turds are swimming in cash.
Yeah, well, smile and wave. With all the Green grant money flying around, unspent COVID funds, widespread fraud, etc. those are likely our tax dollars coming home to roost.
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Offline cato potatoe

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Re: Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2024, 03:43:47 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on September 06, 2024, 03:10:36 pm
I thought Nate Silver and 538 parted ways?

They did.  His latest model is well thought out, weighting pollsters by their accuracy and partisan bent, and he tries to smooth out any bounces that generally become irrelevant by November.
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Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2024, 05:45:23 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on September 06, 2024, 02:09:37 pm

https://twitter.com/JoeConchaTV/status/1832118398437781752

My gut is that the race has swung in Trump's favor for now. At least with him winning the EC, if not the popular vote as well. Could be wrong, could be fleeting who knows?

I read an article which said something to the effect of "the more people see Harris the less they like her". I think that just it, Harris is as unlikable as Trump is, and the economy is not doing that well! Could change though, as it's vey close.
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