Latest swing state polls suggest Trump could score decisive victory against Kamala Harris

[mystery-ak]

 Latest swing state polls suggest Trump could score decisive victory against Kamala Harris
By A.G. Gancarski   
Published Sep. 2, 2024, 6:44 p.m. ET

Fresh surveys from seven battleground states show a scenario in which Donald Trump could win in November with a decisive 296 electoral votes.

Trafalgar, which polled between Aug. 28 and 30, sees Trump sweeping 44 electoral votes from the pivotal Blue Wall states in November, eking out narrow wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin inside the polls’ margins of error.

Insider Advantage handled polling in four other battlegrounds between Aug. 29 and 31, with Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina going to Trump.

To be sure, each of these states remains a statistical dead heat — meaning they could ultimately go either way come Election Day.

However, the polling is a departure from recent polling that shows Vice President Kamala Harris making gains in the states that will decide the election.

more
https://nypost.com/2024/09/02/us-news/latest-swing-state-polls-suggest-trump-could-score-decisive-victory-against-kamala-harris/

[catfish1957]

Fair assessment or not...  Tralfagar is considered to be a Republican push poll.

@mystery-ak   is rightfully citing the Rasmussen polls the most as far as an accurate barometer of trending

[mystery-ak]

Fair assessment or not...  Tralfagar is considered to be a Republican push poll.

@mystery-ak   is rightfully citing the Rasmussen polls the most as far as an accurate barometer of trending

Isn't Tralfagar considered a good polling company?

[catfish1957]

Isn't Tralfagar considered a good polling company?

I think they are decent, but anytime a (R) or (D) is put added to a poll, there is inherent expectation and thinking they are push polls.   

I have reviewed their poll quesitoning, and they seem more objective that most, but still, they still there is that base affiliation.

[LMAO]

Isn't Tralfagar considered a good polling company?

They predicted a red wave and had Oz beating Fetterman in Pennsylvania in 2022, they showed a much closer race for governor in Pennsylvania that year,, and  their polling showed Tim Michael’s beating Tony Evers for the governorship here  in Wisconsin also

They also showed  Dixon possibly eeking out a win over Gretchen Whitmer in  Michigan  that year.

They may or may not be a good polling company. But they did overestimate Republican enthusiasm in 2022

We saw this same thing with the polls with Romney versus Obama in 2012. They over estimated Republican enthusiasm and underestimated Democrat enthusiasm


Romney ran a good campaign and he handled himself very well in the debates with Obama. But Obama was able to get out his very enthusiastic base and even outvote independent voters


This is the same model that the Democrats are following with Harris.

[catfish1957]

They predicted a red wave and had Oz beating Fetterman in Pennsylvania in 2022, they showed a much closer race for governor in Pennsylvania that year,, and  their polling showed Tim Michael’s beating Tony Evers for the governorship here  in Wisconsin also

They also showed  Dixon possibly eeking out a win over Gretchen Whitmer in  Michigan also that year.

'22 is another reason that has me worried about November.  And why I think this thing is tilting her way.   She's won too many news cycles the past month to not be worried.  As that is what it has boiled down to.  News cycle wins

[LMAO]

'22 is another reason that has me worried about November.  And why I think this thing is tilting her way.   She's won too many news cycles the past month to not be worried.  As that is what it has boiled down to.  News cycle wins

I’m actually surprised she’s doing so well considering not long ago her JAR was lower than Biden’s. But it doesn’t surprise me that Trump’s campaign is faltering horribly. Trump is now the confused old guy. His 2016 campaign was much sharper plus he had the gift of running against one of the most hated politicians in the country who ran a very lazy campaign because she felt she was entitled to the presidency.

Harris has a growing and enthusiastic base and she gives voters something to vote for who didn’t want to vote for either Trump or Biden.  They called those people double haters. Now they’re single haters

Harris is their psychological excuse to move on from that Trump/Biden era


We’ll look back at that June debate between he and Biden when that was the beginning of the end of Trump’s campaign. Had he said no, and said we’ll debate in September, and Biden faltered like he did in that June debate, it would’ve put the Democrat party in disarray too close to the election and after early voting started. Although Fetterman’s Post stroke debate didn’t seem to hurt him when it came to the election. That’s why I wouldn’t be counting on these debates to really change anything. She’ll stumble during them and so will Trump. But it won’t matter how people vote

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Isn't Tralfagar considered a good polling company?

Before the 2020 election, FiveThirtyEight gave Trafalgar a grade of C−. Afterwards, until March 2023, FiveThirtyEight had Trafalgar at a grade of A−. As of March 9th 2023, FiveThirtyEight has Trafalgar at a grade of B.

  It's why I tend to look at polling aggregates. Never rely on just one polling company. And yes we all know polls are limited.

[bigheadfred]

I’m actually surprised she’s doing so well considering not long ago her JAR was lower than Biden’s. But it doesn’t surprise me that

Trump’s campaign is faltering horribly

. Trump is now the confused old guy. His 2016 campaign was much sharper plus he had the gift of running against one of the most hated politicians in the country who ran a very lazy campaign because she felt she was entitled to the presidency.

Harris has a growing and enthusiastic base and she gives voters something to vote for who didn’t want to vote for either Trump or Biden.  They called those people double haters. Now they’re single haters

Harris is their psychological excuse to move on from that Trump/Biden era


We’ll look back at that June debate between he and Biden when that was the beginning of the end of Trump’s campaign. Had he said no, and said we’ll debate in September, and Biden faltered like he did in that June debate, it would’ve put the Democrat party in disarray too close to the election and after early voting started. Although Fetterman’s Post stroke debate didn’t seem to hurt him when it came to the election. That’s why I wouldn’t be counting on these debates to really change anything. She’ll stumble during them and so will Trump. But it won’t matter how people vote

The only one pushing that bullshit is you.

[bigheadfred]

InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
Latest
@NateSilver538
 forecast (9/3)

Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 56.7% (highest since 7/31)
🟦 Harris: 43.0%
——
Swing States: chance of winning

Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 67-33%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 70-30%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Michigan - 🔵 Harris 51-49%
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 53-47%
——
@Polymarket
 odds
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 47%

[LMAO]

The only one pushing that bullshit is you.

lol

The first time I heard this  response was in 1996 when I told people that Bob Doles campaign was falling apart. The second time was when I told people the same thing about the Kerry  campaign in 2004

Forget polls. The fact that Harris and the Democrats are registering new voters in the demographics that they need to win tells me Trump’s campaign is in trouble. And now these voters don’t necessarily have to go to the polls and they have  early and mail in voting

https://x.com/tbonier/status/1828457890228629534

And


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jrMar7jbHjs

If anybody believes that these voters are going to register but not vote, or switch their vote from Harris  to Trump, or enough independent voters are gonna somehow crawl over broken glass to outvote the Democrat base to vote for Donald Trump, I don’t know what to tell you


And what is Donald Trump doing? Oh, that’s right. Trying to figure out what his position on abortion should be


Also, we white dudes are becoming a smaller share of the electorate,  my friend

[catfish1957]

InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
Latest
@NateSilver538
 forecast (9/3)

Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 56.7% (highest since 7/31)
🟦 Harris: 43.0%
——
Swing States: chance of winning

Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 67-33%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 70-30%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Michigan - 🔵 Harris 51-49%
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 53-47%
——
@Polymarket
 odds
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 47%

But Fred...  Here is today's snapshot from 538....  I want to be optimistic, but until somehow this 47% Trump ceiling is breached, all Trump can hope for is some Electoral College magic like '16.

Harris 48.9% Trump 45.3%

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[cato potatoe]

Nate Silver has priced in a convention bounce, but is open to the possibility that convention bounces are obsolete.  He thinks the electoral college would tip in her favor somewhere between a 2 and 3 point advantage in the popular vote.  As of now she's at +3.4% in his model, and he assumes that will shrink over the coming week. 

So the polls are inconclusive, but the "on the ground" information has been troubling for several weeks.  I'm told the dems will deploy heavy resources into NC where they have a good chance to offset a potential loss in GA.  A Harris victory in NC would require the GOP to flip GA, AZ, NV, and PA.