The U.S. Defense Industrial Base Is Not Prepared for a Possible Conflict with China

[rangerrebew]

The U.S. Defense Industrial Base Is Not Prepared for a Possible Conflict with China
Gif of the outline of China with stars from its flag.
by Seth G. Jones

In a major regional conflict—such as a war with China in the Taiwan Strait—the U.S. use of munitions would likely exceed the current stockpiles of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD).

According to the results of a series of CSIS war games, the United States would likely run out of some munitions—such as long-range, precision-guided munitions.

This would occur in less than one week in a Taiwan Strait conflict.


The U.S. defense industrial base also lacks adequate surge capacity for a major war.

These shortfalls would make it difficult for the United States to sustain a protracted conflict.

These problems are particularly concerning since the rate at which China has been acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment is five to six times faster than the United States, according to some U.S. government estimates.

Challenges with the U.S. defense industrial base are not new. However, there are at least three developments that have added new urgency to resolving the challenges with the industrial base and deterring Chinese aggression:

https://features.csis.org/preparing-the-US-industrial-base-to-deter-conflict-with-China/

[rangerrebew]

But Biden/Harris say we are.

[Smokin Joe]

The reality is that we don't have the tool and die, manufacturing, assembly lines we had after a year of lend-lease.
Manufacturers then of various consumer goods (Sewing machines) were converted to making weapons, manufacturers of vehicles to making trucks and tanks. We had the foundries, the shipyards, and the people who had some basic skills to train to man them (regardless of sex).

Nearly one in five (17%) lived on a farm in 1940, in 2020, it's down to one in fifty (2%).
Granted, that is not the only place to acquire blue collar skills, But the rural population had dwindled from 43% in 1940 to 17% in 2020, and of the population groups I have met, those most likely to acquire skills associated with self sufficiency were folks in rural areas. Those same skill sets transfer well into other blue collar tasks as well, and the tendency to not specialize, outside of profession, makes for a more versatile workforce.
Those women, too, were robust in the sense that just doing the wash involved a lot more physical activity, unlike after the advent of Automatic Washing machines and power wringers like this ad from 1945 shows.


"Saves 90% of your heavy lifting!"
Which means women were accustomed to doing 10 times as much physical labor before the war (and that's not counting farm chores, milking, or any of the other myriad tasks a homeowner/housewife/farm wife did, often without the benefit of power tools).

'Rosie' already had a pair of 'guns' before she took up riveting or welding on Liberty Ships.

Times have changed, and granted, so has manufacturing, with industrial robots and CNC milling, for a couple of examples, but staying out from between things that move and can hurt you and something you can't move is still important. Those who aren't used to that sort of environment are far more likely to gt hurt. And with the questionable destiny of our electrical grid (depending on wind and solar), working three shifts at the weapons plant might not be an option.
At least one shift will be in the dark.
 
I salute our predecessors, and note that in terms of being ready for all-out conflict, we all have a long way to go to catch up.

[Fishrrman]

Title:
"The U.S. Defense Industrial Base Is Not Prepared for a Possible Conflict with China"

A good part of that is because starting in the 1980's a significant portion of the U.S.'s "industrial base" was MOVED TO China...

How long would it take to reconstruct a steel mill as large as the old ones that once stood in Pittsburgh, and get it operational, with trained workers who knew what they are doing...?

[SZonian]

In a war of attrition, we lose and handily. We simply can't produce war materiel fast enough to produce the weapons. That's a direct influence of having raw materials and refined products sourced and manufactured overseas. China has us over the barrel as it relates to materials, they simply haven't done it yet to avoid creating "hostilities". But when they think they're ready, they'll pull the plug and we'll get our asses handed to us or make huge concessions (surrender?).

I've seen the quality of aerospace workers decline significantly in the last 20 years.
A very large defense contractor got so desperate for bodies, they hired people with no prior mechanical, let alone aircraft experience.
That experiment has proven very costly in the sense of cost over-runs and delays.