Harris ‘resets’ electoral map, moving three states in Democrats’ favor
By
Samantha-Jo Roth
August 7, 2024 3:44 pm
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A nonpartisan election handicapper has updated ratings for three states in the 2024 presidential election cycle, shifting them toward Democrats after Vice President Kamala Harris became the party’s nominee for president.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is now moving Georgia into the “toss-up” category, and Minnesota and New Hampshire are now rated as “likely Democratic.” Georgia had previously been identified as leaning Republican, and Minnesota and New Hampshire had been identified as likely Democratic.
https://twitter.com/politicalplayer/status/1821242395180118300Georgia has 11 electoral votes, Minnesota has 10, and New Hampshire has four. The election projector now shows Democrats with 226 electoral votes from states at a minimum leaning Democrat, while Republicans have 235 electoral votes from states that at least lean Republican. There are currently 77 votes in play from “toss-up” states.
In rationalizing the change in ratings, the group said in the weeks since Harris “emerged as Democrats’ standard-bearer, she has ‘reset’ the electoral map to some degree” after polling better than President Joe Biden before he ended his 2024 run. Gov. Tim Walz’s (D-MN), Harris’s newly announced running mate, state also shifted toward the Democratic ticket.
“It appears that at least in the short term, Harris has reversed the slippage — or has at least been able to stop the bleeding — that Democrats have seen since the Biden-Trump debate in June,” J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote.
“Looking nationally, Harris currently leads in all national polling aggregators. When Biden left the race, he was generally polling behind Trump. Harris making the race into more of a 50-50 proposition means we should adjust our own ratings to better reflect the state of the race,” he added.
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