America Isn’t Ready for the Wars of the Future
And They’re Already Here
By
Mark A. Milley and Eric Schmidt
September/October 2024
Published on August 5, 2024
On the battlefields of Ukraine, the future of war is quickly becoming its present. Thousands of drones fill the skies. These drones and their operators are using artificial intelligence systems to avoid obstacles and identify potential targets. AI models are also helping Ukraine predict where to strike. Thanks to these systems, Ukrainian soldiers are taking out tanks and downing planes with devastating effectiveness. Russian units find themselves under constant observation, and their communications lines are prone to enemy disruption—as are Ukraine’s. Both states are racing to develop even more advanced technologies that can counter relentless attacks and overcome their adversary’s defenses.
The war in Ukraine is hardly the only conflict in which new technology is transforming the nature of warfare. In Myanmar and Sudan, insurgents and the government are both using unmanned vehicles and algorithms as they fight. In 2020, an autonomous Turkish-made drone fielded by Libyan government-backed troops struck retreating combatants—perhaps the first drone attack conducted without human input. In the same year, Azerbaijan’s military used Turkish- and Israeli-made drones, along with loitering munitions (explosives designed to hover over a target), to seize the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. And in Gaza, Israel has fielded thousands of drones connected to AI algorithms, helping Israeli troops navigate the territory’s urban canyons.
In a sense, there is nothing surprising about the pace of such developments. War has always spurred innovation. But today’s shifts are unusually rapid, and they will have a far greater effect. Future wars will no longer be about who can mass the most people or field the best jets, ships, and tanks. Instead, they will be dominated by increasingly autonomous weapons systems and powerful algorithms.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/ai-america-ready-wars-future-ukraine-israel-mark-milley-eric-schmidt
