Quick update...
NHC predicting a Cat 1 hitting the FL coastal bend. Looking at the Vis, Water, and IR loops, this storm sure seems less organized than the NHC is saying at 50mph sustained. OTOH, sometimes these rough storms through their can have bursts of convection in individual storms that might exceed expected.
Still, with the bathwater in the NE Gulf, plus minimal shear, I can easily see a Cat 1 landfall.